[ADC12 Price Daily Commentary] Aluminum alloy futures consolidate and pull back, spot resilience emerges

Futures: The most-traded AD2611 cast aluminum alloy futures contract opened at 23,550 yuan/mt today, rose to 23,575 yuan/mt in early trading before pulling back, bottomed at an intraday low of 23,485 yuan/mt at 09:35, then rebounded step by step, gave back some gains near the close, and closed at 23,555 yuan/mt in the midday session, down 165 yuan/mt or 0.7% from yesterday's settlement price.

Spot: ADC12 market quotes were largely stable today, with only a few enterprises cutting prices by 100 yuan/mt. Spot prices showed some resilience, with SMM ADC12 prices holding steady at 24,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Cost side, aluminum scrap raw material prices saw limited fluctuations overall, but as tax invoice policies tightened in more regions, compliance procurement requirements for enterprises increased further. Procurement costs for raw materials at some enterprises remained high, and cost support stayed relatively strong. Although aluminum prices and futures pulled back, constrained by high costs, enterprises had relatively limited willingness to cut prices proactively, and sentiment to hold prices firm persisted in the market. ADC12 prices are expected to continue consolidating on a strong note in the short term. Cost support and compliance procurement pressure will limit the downside, but weak demand recovery will also cap the elasticity of further price rises. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of tax invoice policy implementation, changes in aluminum scrap raw material supply, and downstream stockpiling ahead of the dual holidays.

Imports: Imported ADC12 offers were maintained at $3,100–3,200/mt, with import break-even near the break-even line.