Hold Back from Selling, Hold Prices Firm; Tantalum Prices Rise Slowly; High-End Leads Gains, Traditional Under Pressure [SMM Analysis]

Recently, tantalum ore prices have shown an upward trend. According to market feedback, influenced by the industry conference, upstream miners have shown strong sentiment to hold back from selling, actively controlling tantalum ore and reducing external shipments. The tightening of ore supply has supported price strength. Meanwhile, since September, some downstream demand has gradually recovered, and under the combined effect of supply and demand, tantalum prices have shown a slow ramp-up trend.

From the perspective of demand transmission across downstream sectors, the pace of price increases shows clear divergence. In high-end application fields, supply is tight and product premiums are prominent, with related product quotes being continuously raised. Among them, tantalum capacitors are the largest downstream demand sector, accounting for about 40% of applications, with industry market growth maintained above 15%, directly boosting upstream tantalum powder demand. Driven by the concentrated release of high-end orders and tight supply, mainstream tantalum powder specifications are priced at around 6,000 yuan/kg; specifications for high-end fields show significant premiums due to tight supply, with prices about 50% higher than mainstream specifications, and order backlogs are full with tight supply. Tantalum sputtering targets account for about 20% of applications, supporting demand for high-purity tantalum ingots; currently, 99.999% high-purity tantalum ingot transaction prices are in the range of 6,900-7,000 yuan/kg. In contrast, products in traditional and low-end application fields lack upward price momentum, with demand performing generally and slightly shrinking. In other application directions, due to some traders bidding low to grab orders, related enterprises have basically suspended accepting orders.

Regarding the future trend of tantalum ore, market participants believe that the current overall supply-demand fundamentals of tantalum ore have not been substantially impacted. The tight market supply mainly stems from miners holding back from selling, as miners generally hope to sell their tantalum ore at higher prices and therefore actively control external shipment volumes. In the short term, tantalum ore prices remain biased toward bullish, and further exploration toward the year's high cannot be ruled out; however, the market also cautions that once prices reach the year's high, concentrated selling by miners may trigger a sharp pullback in tantalum ore prices.