Global Magnesium Supply and Trade Patterns Reshaped by Strategic Demand and New Projects

The strategic attributes of magnesium metal continue to stand out, and the global primary magnesium supply-demand and trade patterns are being restructured

With the rapid development of global lightweighting, new energy, and high-end equipment industries, the strategic resource attributes of magnesium metal continue to rise, and its rigid demand position in automotive weight reduction, aerospace, high-end alloy modification, and critical material support continues to strengthen. For a long time, global primary magnesium supply has been highly concentrated in China, while outside China, constrained by resource, energy, environmental protection, and industry chain support shortcomings, primary magnesium capacity has been small in scale and weak in flexibility. The global magnesium industry is currently showing pronounced structural divergence: outside China, the focus is on filling gaps in local primary magnesium capacity and advancing supply chain de-Sinicization. Meanwhile, China, leveraging its entire industry chain advantages, is upgrading from primary raw material exports to magnesium alloys and high-end die-cast end-use products. The global primary magnesium supply-demand pattern and trade flows are likely to undergo long-term reshaping.

Overseas demand continues to expand, with high-end manufacturing rigid demand underpinning high import dependence

Global magnesium consumption growth is driven jointly by multiple overseas regions. Lightweighting demand in Europe, the US, Japan and South Korea, and emerging markets is steadily being released, but local primary magnesium capacity outside China is essentially absent, maintaining a long-term pattern of "growing demand, undersupply, and import dependence on China."

Europe is a core global magnesium consumer market. According to Eurostat trade statistics, EU magnesium consumption in 2025 was approximately 110,000 mt. Driven by stringent carbon emission regulations, Europe's NEV lightweighting demand continues to grow rigidly, and the magnesium alloy penetration rate is steadily rising. However, the EU has no local primary magnesium smelting capacity, with 97% of primary magnesium supply dependent on Chinese imports, highlighting a pronounced single-supply-chain risk.

Primary magnesium capacity in North America has been completely phased out. Large-scale integrated die-casting for NEVs and national defense and military procurement have become core demand growth drivers, pushing regional magnesium consumption steadily upward. At the same time, the US and Canada have designated magnesium as a critical strategic mineral and continue to advance local supply chain support policies, but the near-term capacity gap remains unfilled.

Demand in markets such as Japan, South Korea, India, and Türkiye is also growing steadily. Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on Chinese imports for magnesium raw materials, with demand concentrated in automotive lightweighting, aerospace, and 3C electronics. India and Türkiye, leveraging the development of their local automotive industries, are seeing continued release of demand for magnesium die-casting, alloy modification, and steel desulfurization. The overall overseas rigid demand base remains solid, and the import dependence pattern is unlikely to be reversed in the short term.

Stable but weak capacity among magnesium producers outside China, with pronounced regional supply-demand divergence

According to SMM data, global primary magnesium production totaled approximately 1.09 million mt in 2025, of which China produced 1.02 million mt, accounting for as much as 93%; combined production outside China was only about 70,000 mt, representing less than 7%. Global primary magnesium supply is highly concentrated in China, while supply outside China is extremely small in scale, highly fragmented, and lacking in flexibility. Operating capacity outside China is concentrated in a few countries, including Russia, Israel, Brazil, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Iran, and is generally characterized by small scale, weak supporting infrastructure, poor flexibility, and limited growth. This landscape is unlikely to be materially shaken in the medium term.

According to USGS data, total primary magnesium production outside China in 2025 was approximately 130,000 mt, but the volume of merchant magnesium available for export was far smaller. Russia's total primary magnesium production in 2025 was about 60,000 mt (including internal transfers), of which Solikamsk Magnesium Works produced approximately 15,000 mt of merchant magnesium, accounting for 60% of Russia's merchant magnesium production; Solikamsk Magnesium Works held a 1.4% global market share. VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation's magnesium is mainly produced for captive use in titanium sponge production, with exports of about 6,000 mt. The combined merchant magnesium actually available for export from the two companies was only about 21,000 mt. Israel's ICL Dead Sea Magnesium Ltd produced 17,800 mt of magnesium metal in 2025, with a designed capacity of 33,000 mt/year and a capacity utilization rate of about 54%. Its products are mainly exported to high-end markets in Europe and the US, and it is Israel's only primary magnesium producer. Brazil's Rima Industrial produced approximately 20,000 mt and is the only primary magnesium producer in the Southern Hemisphere. It plans to increase production by 20% in 2026 and expand exports to the US, Japan, and South Korea. Turkey's Eczacibasi Esan plant has a designed capacity of 15,000 mt/year, but its capacity utilization rate has long been low, with actual production estimated at 5,000-8,000 mt, and its exports are mainly targeted at the European market. Kazakhstan's Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium Magnesium Plant (UKTMP) produced approximately 13,000 mt of magnesium. As a co-product of titanium sponge production, its magnesium output has declined in tandem with titanium production. Iran's Shemsh Felez Royal produced about 5,000 mt, essentially to meet rigid demand from domestic basic industries. US primary magnesium capacity has effectively exited the market. The USGS confirmed that US primary magnesium production was zero from 2023 to 2025, and the sole producer US Magnesium shut down completely after bankruptcy in 2025. The EU has no smelting capacity at scale, and projects such as Verde Magnesium in Romania remain in early stages.

Overall, China accounts for over 90% of global primary magnesium production, with the rest of the world combined at less than 10%. Moreover, the actual volume of magnesium available for export is even smaller than total production figures suggest, leaving the market highly dependent on Chinese supply. This structure is unlikely to be materially disrupted in the medium term.

Multiple countries are laying out new low-carbon magnesium projects to strengthen supply chain autonomy

Against the backdrop of global critical raw material security and supply chain de-risking, Europe, the US, and resource-rich countries are intensively planning new low-carbon primary magnesium projects in an attempt to break dependence on China and rebuild domestic supply systems. Magnesium smelting projects are currently being planned in Australia, the US, Canada, Romania, Iceland, and Saudi Arabia, with new processes and low-carbon capacity forming the core focus of overseas project pipelines. Specific overseas projects under construction are summarised below:

In terms of progress, overseas projects show clear divergence. A small number have entered late-stage pilot or demonstration construction phases, while the majority remain in planning or stalled status. By continent, the breakdown is as follows:

Oceania: Latrobe Magnesium's demonstration plant is 70% complete, briquetting equipment has passed acceptance, and reduction furnace installation is progressing steadily. First metal output is targeted for H2 2026, but the 10,000 mt commercial line still requires financing approval. Projects such as Magnium Australia and AusMag have made no substantive progress.

North America: Big Blue Technologies completed over 50 pilot tests in 2025, producing 99.9% purity magnesium ingots, and has begun construction of a 600 mt/year commercial plant with $19.3 million in support from the US Department of Energy (DOE). Mag One has raised over $100 million in cumulative financing and formed a joint venture with TETRA to advance the design of a Phase 1 commercial plant in Arkansas, with plans to achieve annual production of 7,000 mt before 2029. Atlas Materials announced successful pilot production of high-purity magnesium metal in June 2026. West Magnesium has relocated to a new plant in Las Vegas, with equipment assembly underway. Canada's Minago received $3.4 million in government investment, obtained a revised environmental permit, and signed an exclusive Canadian process license with Big Blue. Terves has made no substantive progress. Europe: Romania's Verde Magnesium signed a 10-year land lease agreement, but startup still awaits EU funding. Mures Magnesium has made no substantive progress.

Asia: Magmec (Saudi Arabia) and MDO (Oman) have both made no substantive progress.

South America: No new primary magnesium projects for now, with only Brazil's Rima Industrial in production.

Overall, new overseas capacity generally faces insufficient process validation, lengthy financing approval cycles, and lagging pilot progress. In the short term, effective new capacity release during 2026-2028 will be limited, making it difficult to quickly close the supply-demand gap. In the long term, as new processes iterate and policy subsidies are implemented, overseas low-carbon magnesium capacity may form marginal growth and gradually reshape the global supply structure.

Global magnesium trade landscape undergoes a qualitative shift: China upgrades from raw material exports to high-end finished product exports

Taking into account global supply-demand dynamics and capacity iteration trends, overseas players are addressing the issue of "self-sufficiency in primary magnesium raw materials," while China is upgrading toward "value dominance across the entire industry chain." The logic of global magnesium trade will be progressively restructured.

The divergence in export structure proves that overseas dependence on Chinese magnesium is deepening, not weakening. According to customs data, China's magnesium ingot exports in 2025 totaled 251,300 mt, down 5.54% YoY; magnesium alloy exports reached 99,600 mt, up 4.51% YoY, the only category with positive growth. This divergence is most pronounced in the European market: according to SMM analysis, China's magnesium ingot exports to Europe fell 16.38% YoY in H1 2025, while magnesium alloy exports to the Netherlands bucked the trend with a 0.75% increase over the same period. European clients have not stopped purchasing magnesium; rather, they have shifted their procurement focus from primary magnesium ingots to magnesium alloys—because the EU no longer has primary magnesium smelting capacity, and the alloying process required for automotive lightweighting cannot bypass Chinese supply. From January to June 2026, magnesium ingot exports reached 136,500 mt, up 11.89% YoY; magnesium alloy exports totaled 52,700 mt, up 7.55% YoY; magnesium powder exports came to 36,400 mt, down 3.45% YoY; and wrought magnesium exports rose 91.67% YoY. The pattern of continued contraction in low-end categories alongside rising volumes and prices for high-value-added categories has been further established. Over the long term, China's deep-processing advantages will be hard to shake. Baowu Magnesium has built a complete industry chain spanning "dolomite mining—primary magnesium smelting—magnesium alloy melting—deep processing—recycling and recovery," with products exported to Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia. Overseas projects under construction remain stuck at the primary magnesium stage: Latrobe Magnesium's demonstration plant is 70% complete, but its 10,000 mt commercial plant will not come online until H2 2028; Big Blue Technologies has only 600 mt/year, slated to start operations at the end of 2026. Overseas players generally face long financing cycles and a lack of deep-processing support, so effective new capacity additions from 2026 to 2028 will be limited. Overseas supply fills the "raw material gap," while China holds the "chokepoint of the industry chain."

This means the competitive focus of global magnesium trade has shifted from "who has the resources" to "who has the capability." Even if new overseas capacity comes online as scheduled, it can only provide limited supplementation at the primary magnesium stage, while China's industry chain advantages in mid-to-high-end segments such as alloying, die casting, and end-user components will be difficult to replicate in the short term. China's magnesium industry is upgrading from the "ballast" of global supply to the "chain leader" of the global industry chain.