SMM Tin Morning Brief | The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed overnight at 410,090, breaking above the 410,000 mark. Combined inventories in both locations fell further to 9,572 mt — September 22, 2026 (Tuesday)
[Futures] LME tin 3M on 9/21 (LME T-1) closed at $53,944/mt, up $239 (+0.45%), with Cash at 53,590/53,600 and 3M Bid/Offer at 53,695/53,700. LME tin inventory fell to 4,780 mt (-75 mt), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 22.6% and opening warrants at 4,965 mt. The most-traded SHFE tin sn2610 contract closed at 410,090 yuan/mt in the night session on 9/22, up 1,590 (+0.39% versus yesterday's settlement of 408,500), opening at 412,000, hitting a high of 412,660 and a low of 408,900, with an intraday range of 0.92%. Night session volume was 37,414 lots and open interest was 24,169 lots, down 1,068 lots from the 25,237 lots at the daytime session close on 9/21 (mainly long liquidation). Current quotes: Yunnan Tin at 409,900 yuan/mt and tin reference price at 409,580 yuan/mt.
[Macro] The US Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%–4% on 9/16 (the first hike since July 2023), and the dot plot suggested one more hike within the year. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% intraday on 9/14, at an absolute historical high. The US dollar index closed at 100.39 on 9/21 (+0.17%), continuing to weigh on the base metals complex. In the Middle East, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, with the US threatening to bomb Iranian civilian facilities. International oil prices rose notably, and disruptions to passage through the Strait of Hormuz triggered energy supply concerns, with spillover inflation expectations providing marginal support for inflation-hedging commodities such as tin.
[Fundamentals] SHFE tin inventory fell to 4,792 mt on 9/21, while LME tin inventory stood at 4,780 mt (-75 mt), with combined inventories in both locations at 9,572 mt, continuing to draw down. Supply side improved marginally: tin ore and concentrate imports in August were 19,332 mt (+88.40% YoY), including 7,395 mt from Myanmar (+253.55% YoY) and 3,763 mt from the DRC (+54.07%). The rainy season in Myanmar is nearing its end, and the pace of ore release is accelerating. Demand side: midstream and downstream players are mainly engaged in essential stockpiling ahead of the "two festivals." High-end solder for AI servers and advanced packaging remained resilient, but orders for traditional consumer electronics and PV welding strip were weak. Spot premiums weakened, and the linkage between social inventory and premiums will be the key focus today.
[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the range of 405,000–415,000 yuan/mt today. Bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war around the 410,000 mark, awaiting volume confirmation for direction. Attention is suggested on the linkage between social inventory and premiums after the 9:30 opening.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM】
![Overnight SHFE tin night session closed at 410,090, up 0.39%, with the 410,000 level awaiting bullish and bearish confirmation [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JnZMp20251217171752.jpg)
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