SMM Tin Morning Brief | Overnight SHFE tin closed at 410,090 in the night session, up another 0.39%; LME tin at $53,944/mt; LME tin inventory down another 75 mt to 4,780 mt; the 410,000 level awaits confirmation from bulls and bears — Tuesday, September 22, 2026
[Futures] LME three-month tin closed at $53,944/mt on 9/21 (+239/+0.44%); inventory at 4,780 mt (-75); 0-3 spot discount at -$210.54/mt. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 409,000 yuan/mt in the daytime session on 9/21 (+3,640/+0.90%), opening at 407,490 / high 410,460 / low 406,400, with volume of 79,600 lots and open interest of 25,200 lots (-2,671); overnight night session closed at 410,090 (+1,590/+0.39%), opening at 412,000 / high 412,660 / low 408,900, with volume of 37,400 lots.
[Spot] Premiums (against October): small brands 500-900, Yunzi-brand 900-1,200, Yunnan Tin 1,200-1,500 yuan/mt; downstream users wary of high prices and purchasing as needed.
[Three-dimensional Inventory] LME tin inventory at 4,780 mt (9/21, -75); SHFE tin futures warrants at 4,792 mt (9/21, -187); SMM China tin ingot social inventory at 8,968 mt (weekly data as of 9/18, down 1,177 WoW from last Friday, -11.6%), ending the inventory buildup.
[Macro] The US Fed hiked rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% at the September FOMC with a unanimous 12-0 vote (the first hike since July 2023); CME FedWatch shows a 43.5% probability of holding rates in October and a 56.5% probability of a 25bp hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.957% on 9/21 (-3bp), and the 30-year at 5.294% (-8bp); WTI at $93.17/bbl (-3.03%), Brent at $96.77/bbl (-2.54%), with Saudi pipeline repairs and US-Iran diplomatic expectations jointly weighing on oil prices. The US dollar index was at 100.29, and all three major US stock indices rebounded.
[Fundamentals] Ore side: Production resumptions at Man Maw in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with the rainy season, deep drainage, and civilian explosive supplies constraining output; Indonesia's two exchanges traded 3,610 mt in August (+3% MoM/+30% YoY); ICOMEX is planned to launch on January 4, 2027. Alphamin in the DRC had no new production suspensions in September.
Smelting side: August refined tin production was 15,888 mt (-1.63% MoM/+6.20% YoY); Yunnan 40% concentrate TCs at 18,000 yuan/mt (flat), Guangxi/Jiangxi/Hunan 60% concentrates at 14,000 yuan/mt; operating rates in Yunnan Tin and Jiangxi provinces at 64.94% (-0.94pp). August refined tin imports were 2,746.85 mt (+111.88% YoY), including 2,170.81 mt from Indonesia.
Demand: In August, the SMM solder operating rate was 72.8% (flat), with production of approximately 6,900 mt; integrated circuits +20.6%, new energy vehicles +21.9%, and resilience continued in AI servers/advanced packaging/semiconductor-grade high-end solder (tin for AI use: 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030, CAGR 16%); smartphones -22.3%, solar cells -12.9%, and PV welding strips/consumer electronics have not yet fully strengthened.
[Spot Market] September 21 review: The most-traded contract closed at 409,000 in the daytime session, continued to rise to 410,090 in the night session, and the premium widened slightly. September 22 morning session estimate: The most-traded contract is expected to move sideways in the 409,000-414,000 range, with 412,000-414,000 as resistance for the week above and 408,000-409,000 as intraday support below; US Fed officials' speeches (Williams/Jefferson/Barkin, etc.) and LME inventory changes remain key intraday variables.
![The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 410,090 overnight, breaking above the 410,000 mark. Combined inventories in both locations fell further to 9,572 mt [SMM Tin Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/qWcEp20251217171751.jpeg)
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