With winter stockpiling demand, smelters actively purchase; what are the expectations for China's ore import volume in September? [SMM Analysis]

SMM, September 21:

      According to the latest customs data, China imported 424,900 mt of zinc concentrates (in physical content) in August 2026, down 0.15% MoM and down 9.06% YoY. Cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to August totaled 3.6121 million mt (in physical content), up 3% YoY.

       By country, the top three sources of imports in August 2026 were: Australia at 77,300 mt in physical content, accounting for 18.2%; Peru at 75,900 mt in physical content, accounting for 17.9%; and South Africa at 59,200 mt in physical content, accounting for 13.9%. On a MoM basis, zinc concentrate imports from Peru and South Africa increased notably in August, while imports from Russia and Australia declined to some extent.

       The MoM increase in China's zinc concentrate imports in August was limited, broadly in line with earlier expectations. SMM attributes this to the following reasons:

• In August, LME zinc saw a short squeeze, and losses on imported zinc concentrates in China widened to over -2,500 yuan/mt Zn at one point. Given the price advantage, smelters primarily purchased domestic ore, with limited spot orders for imported zinc concentrates entering the market.
• Q3 is the regular maintenance season in China. Although refined zinc production in August increased MoM from July, the increase was limited, and overall demand for ore in the market remained weak.

       Entering September, SMM expects China's zinc concentrate imports to have some room for recovery. On one hand, as the LME short squeeze has largely concluded, losses on imported zinc concentrates in China have narrowed to around -1,500 yuan/mt Zn, weakening the price advantage of domestic ore. On the other hand, with the winter stockpiling season approaching, smelters are actively purchasing imported ore to stockpile for winter, which is expected to drive some growth in imported ore inflows.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.)