[SMM Analysis] China Zinc Concentrate Imports: September Outlook

SMM Sep 21 News:

According to the latest customs data, China imported 424,900 tonnes of zinc concentrate in August 2026, down 0.15% month on month and 9.06% year on year. Total imports in January–August reached 3.6121 million tonnes, up 3% year on year.

By origin, the top three suppliers in August were Australia, Peru and South Africa. China imported 77,300 tonnes from Australia, accounting for 18.2% of the total, 75,900 tonnes from Peru, accounting for 17.9%, and 59,200 tonnes from South Africa, accounting for 13.9%. Imports from Peru and South Africa increased notably month on month, while shipments from Russia and Australia declined to some extent.

China's zinc concentrate imports in August increased only marginally from July, broadly in line with previous expectations. SMM attributes this to the following factors:

1. The squeeze in LME zinc inventories in August widened losses on imported concentrate.
At one point, losses on imported zinc concentrate in China exceeded RMB 2,500/metal tonne. With domestic concentrate offering a stronger price advantage, smelters mainly sourced domestic ore, while spot imports of zinc concentrate remained limited.

2. August fell within the domestic smelters’ regular maintenance season.
Although refined zinc output increased month on month in August, the increase was limited. Overall demand for zinc concentrate therefore remained relatively weak.

Looking ahead to September, SMM expects China’s zinc concentrate imports to have some room for recovery. On the one hand, as the squeeze in overseas zinc markets eased, losses on imported zinc concentrate narrowed to around RMB 1,500/metal tonne, weakening the price advantage of domestic concentrate. On the other hand, with the winter stockpiling season approaching, smelters are becoming more active in purchasing imported concentrate to build inventories for the winter period. This is expected to support a moderate increase in imported concentrate flows.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)