[SMM Analysis] China's August Refined Zinc Exports Surge — Will the Momentum Extend into September?

SMM, September 20:

According to the latest customs data, China's refined zinc imports in August 2026 were 2,300 mt, down 2,700 mt or 53.14% MoM and down 90.68% YoY. From January to August, cumulative refined zinc imports were 67,100 mt, down 71.51% YoY. China's refined zinc exports in August 2026 were 40,600 mt, up 31,400 mt or 340.36% MoM and up 12,976.53% YoY. From January to August, cumulative refined zinc exports were 70,700 mt, up 438.79% YoY. This means net exports of refined zinc in August were 38,300 mt.

By import destination, the main zinc ingot imports came from Australia (1,300 mt, 54.72%), South Korea (500 mt, 21.6%), and Spain (200 mt, 8.35%), with no imports from Kazakhstan. By export destination, China's main zinc ingot exports went to Singapore (15,500 mt, 38.08%), Hong Kong, China (14,700 mt, 36.18%), and Taiwan, China (2,400 mt, 5.82%). Overall, refined zinc exports rose sharply in August, mainly because the low SHFE/LME zinc price ratio opened the export window for refined zinc. By trade mode, zinc ingot imports were mainly Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 59%; zinc ingot exports were mainly Ordinary Trade, accounting for 95%, with the rest being Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas.

Entering September, although exports and restocking at low zinc prices drove China's social inventory down to around 210,000 mt, and the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio recovered as the domestic market outperformed the overseas market, the LME Cash-3M high backwardation structure persisted. The window for exporting China's zinc ingots to Southeast Asia remained open, and China's zinc ingots continued to flow out. However, considering that the window for October-date exports to Southeast Asia delivery warehouses will close, zinc ingot exports are expected to be lower than in August. The zinc ingot import window remained closed, keeping imports at low levels.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting investment advice.