[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] Weak Demand and Falling Costs Jointly Keep Industry Chain Prices in the Doldrums
The cobalt industry chain remained under pressure this week. Refined cobalt shot up and then pulled back amid phased purchasing, with the electronic trading price retreating from 289,000 yuan/mt to around 275,000 yuan/mt. Quotes and transactions for intermediate products remained absent, and sales pressure on miners gradually accumulated. Cobalt salt demand was weak, and cobalt sulphate fell into a negative feedback loop of "price cuts—losses—raw material declines—lower costs," with some recycled-source quotes dropping to 57,000–58,000 yuan/mt. Cobalt chloride and Co3O4 continued to weaken under downstream production cuts and sluggish end-use consumption. Cobalt powder downstream users were still digesting high-priced inventory, and new purchasing had yet to begin. Ternary cathode precursor and ternary cathode material prices fell along with nickel, cobalt, and lithium raw materials, with sluggish power demand prompting enterprises to turn cautious in quoting and purchasing. LCO's "September peak season" expectations fell through, with weakening cost support and insufficient end-user stockpiling, leaving short-term prices still at risk of further decline. Some enterprises may carry out small-scale stockpiling before the National Day holiday, but whether the industry chain can stabilize still depends on the recovery of end-use demand and the pace of inventory destocking.