Refined cobalt:
This week, the refined cobalt market rose first and then fell, with rapid changes in market pace. At the beginning of the week, some end-users and traders entered the market to purchase, and trading activity improved significantly. Driven by buying, the electronic trading price rebounded quickly from lows, once recovering to around 289,000 yuan/mt. The sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn then drove more enterprises to follow suit in purchasing, and market optimism visibly warmed. However, this rebound failed to go far: by mid-week, as this round of concentrated purchasing was fully released, market attention returned to fundamentals. Cobalt salt prices were still falling with no signs of improvement, optimism faded accordingly, trading quickly returned to sluggishness, and the electronic trading price pulled back to around 275,000 yuan/mt to consolidate. In the spot market, trader quotes for the spot-futures price spread held steady at a premium of 1,000-13,000 yuan/mt, while mainstream smelters further lowered their Ex-works prices to 285,000 yuan/mt. Pulse-like purchasing volume can only bring a phased rebound and is unlikely to reverse the weak demand backdrop. Before cobalt salt prices stop falling and downstream forms sustained restocking, refined cobalt prices do not yet have the conditions to break out of consolidation at lows.
Intermediate products:
This week, trading in the cobalt intermediate products market remained sluggish. During the week, miners rarely conducted tenders, and market quotes remained absent. Downstream enterprises also showed low willingness to inquire and purchase. The market lacked both price guidance and transaction confirmation, with an overall strong wait-and-see sentiment. Notably, as time passed, sales pressure on miners gradually accumulated, and the sustainability of their stance to hold prices firm faced a certain test. Against the backdrop of continued weakness in other cobalt product prices, the price center of intermediate products may slowly drift lower with the market, and the resolution of the market standoff still depends on marginal changes in miners' selling strategies.
Cobalt sulphate:
This week, cobalt sulphate prices continued to fall, and the market is caught in a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop.The starting point of this decline was on the demand side: downstream purchasing remained persistently weak, and smelters could only keep lowering their quotes to achieve shipments. Although most enterprises still maintained cobalt sulphate quotes above 60,000 yuan/mt this week, actual transactions were very difficult, and some recycling enterprises' low-priced cargoes were already quoted at 57,000-58,000 yuan/mt. The price decline pushed the smelting segment into losses, weakening enterprises' willingness to purchase raw materials, and raw material prices were forced to follow suit: although there were no confirmed transactions for MHP cobalt payables during the week, downstream indicative prices had already fallen to around 55%, and if transactions were concluded at this level, the spot production cost of cobalt sulphate would drop to just over 50,000 yuan/mt. On the recycling side, the coefficient for LCO battery black mass had already fallen below 70, corresponding to a spot cost of only 52,000-54,000 yuan/mt for cobalt sulphate. The further weakening of cost support, in turn, opened new room for smelters to cut prices for shipments. Before substantive improvement appears on the demand side, the cycle of "price cuts—losses—raw material price suppression—cost decline—further price cuts" is expected to continue dominating the direction of the cobalt sulphate market.
Cobalt chloride:
This week, cobalt chloride prices fell sharply, and actual market transactions remained sluggish, with trading dominated by offers. Producer quotes continued to loosen and move lower, with very few firm deals concluded, presenting an overall pattern of quoted prices without transactions. On the demand side, downstream Co3O4 producers generally cut production, with operating loads visibly contracting. Their purchasing demand for cobalt chloride remained at low levels, buying sentiment was negative, and the market lacked incremental buying support. Overall, against the backdrop of persistently contracting demand and difficulty in achieving transaction volume, cobalt chloride prices are expected to continue sliding narrowly in the short term.
Cobalt salt (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices slipped narrowly, and market transactions were dominated by long-term contracts, with sporadic spot orders extremely scarce. Producer quotes also began to loosen slightly. On the supply side, many enterprises had already cut production substantially, and some had even halted production, with industry output visibly contracting. On the demand side, the top-tier mobile phone brand's new model saw channel prices fall quickly on the first day of launch, with the launch price immediately broken, further signaling weak end-use consumption. Downstream LCO cathode plants' purchase willingness remained under pressure. Overall, under the pattern of weak end-use demand and passive supply contraction, Co3O4 prices are expected to continue sliding narrowly in the short term.
Cobalt powder and others:
This week, cobalt powder market transactions remained sluggish, with smelter quotes concentrated around 380,000-390,000 yuan/mt, and only a small number of small-volume spot orders concluded near 400,000 yuan/mt.Downstream purchasing has been slow to start, and the crux lies in earlier stockpiling behavior: during the previous period of sustained cobalt and tungsten price increases, many cemented carbide enterprises purchased large quantities of raw materials. As both raw material and finished product prices pulled back, high-priced inventory caused these enterprises to fall into relatively severe losses, forcing their production pace to slow. The consumption cycle of existing inventory was further extended, and new purchases were repeatedly postponed. For the cobalt powder market, the timing of demand recovery depends not only on the recovery of end-user orders but also on the pace of destocking of downstream high-priced inventory. Before that, the sluggish trading situation is unlikely to fundamentally change.
Ternary cathode precursor:
This week, weakened, with manganese sulphate, nickel sulphate, and falling during the week.
Regarding discounts, for October and Q4 orders, some producers still had willingness to hold prices firm due to the previously high cost of sulphate raw materials. For long-term contracts, some producers had already agreed on annual contracts at the beginning of the year, and most producers had not yet raised their coefficients. Downstream acceptance of coefficient increases for quarterly orders was also weak. Except for some top-tier producers with certain bargaining power, most producers are expected to keep coefficients stable overall compared with Q3. For spot orders, given the relatively weak recent performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices, coupled with weak downstream demand for some producers, October order coefficients are expected to decline.
In terms of production, top-tier producers' export orders remained strong this month, with production schedules at relatively high levels. However, some domestic top-tier producers saw their willingness to stockpile decline and operating rates fall due to end-use demand falling short of expectations and key raw material prices remaining high. Overall, this month's production schedule showed a downward trend.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have not yet shown a clear rebound, and future new order prices will need to focus on actual downstream demand in Q4.
Ternary cathode material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices fell rapidly.From the raw material side, nickel sulphate prices remained weak, cobalt sulphate prices dipped again mid-week, and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices accelerated their decline in the first half of the week before the decline slowed and rebounded slightly in the second half, driving ternary cathode material prices visibly lower. In terms of transactions, some producers had already signed orders in the previous two weeks. However, the decline in lithium chemical prices exceeded expectations, leaving these producers with inventory costs at relatively high levels and facing certain inventory pressure. A small number of battery cell manufacturers, having previously signed orders at high levels, found them difficult to accept and turned to renegotiating some orders. Overall, trading sentiment turned cautious, and cathode plants were also reluctant to quote easily due to the continued decline in raw materials. On the demand side, the EV market maintained the sluggish sentiment seen since the beginning of the month, with end-use demand continuing to weaken and no signs of rebound. Cathode plants mainly consumed inventory, and consumer market demand was also relatively mediocre. As the National Day holiday approaches, some producers have small-batch stockpiling needs, and raw material purchasing sentiment may recover next week.
LCO:
This week, China's LCO market prices pulled back and weakened overall. The industry's traditional "September peak season" boost failed to materialize, and overall fundamentals were under pressure.The cost side formed the core drag. Upstream Co3O4 prices fell, directly compressing the cost support for LCO and driving product prices down accordingly. On the supply side, domestic cathode enterprises maintained a cautious strategy of producing based on sales, with overall industry output fluctuating relatively little. Market supply remained relatively stable, with no obvious supply-demand mismatch pressure. The demand side showed clear weakness, with the peak season boost effect falling far short of market expectations. Downstream end-use market stockpiling willingness was low, with purchasing maintained throughout only on a just-in-time basis, and end-use demand lacked effective upward driving force. The current pace of inventory digestion across the industry chain remained relatively slow, and the supply-demand pattern stayed weak without substantive improvement. Although downstream had no active push for lower prices, this could not offset the dual bearish impact of falling costs and weak demand. Overall, the weak tone of the short-term LCO market has been set, with prices clearly drifting lower. Going forward, focus should be on downstream stockpiling follow-through in late September. If end-use demand remains persistently weak and the peak season continues to be absent, LCO market prices still face the risk of further weakening.
News:
[Tinci: ESS battery demand growth is still expected to outpace power battery over the next 2-3 years]Tinci recently stated at its semi-annual report results briefing that, based on current downstream client feedback, with rising demand from AI data centers, ESS batteries are expected to maintain higher demand growth than power batteries over the next 2-3 years, thereby further driving demand growth for lithium battery electrolyte. The company's capacity release pace for LiPF6 and electrolyte will be determined based on market demand and market share targets, and the company will release capacity gradually according to market and order demand. (Jin10 Data APP)
[BYD: Sodium-ion battery technology has applied for and laid out over 230 core patents globally]BYD stated on September 16 during an investor survey that for mechanism research and technology R&D on sodium-ion batteries, the company has established a dedicated R&D team of over 100 people, of which 50% hold doctoral degrees. The company has made forward-looking technology deployments and always prioritizes technological innovation. To date, sodium-ion battery technology has applied for and laid out over 230 core patents globally, of which invention patents account for 95%, precisely covering core segments such as high-energy-density cathode materials, electrolyte optimization, and battery system integration. (Jin10 Data APP)
[Leap Motor signs agreements with FAW's Qixin Power and Zhongqi Xinneng]On September 17, Leap Motor and China FAW held a signing ceremony. Leap Motor signed letters of intent for investment and technology cooperation agreements with FAW Qixin Power (Changchun) Technology Co., Ltd. and Zhongqi Xinneng Battery Technology Co., Ltd., both under China FAW. According to the technology cooperation agreement signed between Leap Motor and Zhongqi Xinneng, the two parties will jointly promote forward-looking battery technology research and the implementation of standardized battery cells. They will carry out R&D collaboration around frontier directions such as solid-state batteries, lithium-rich manganese-based batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and LFP ultra-fast charging, jointly promote the targeted development and product application of standardized battery cells, and on this basis jointly explore battery recycling and overseas industry chain collaboration. (Jin10 Data APP)
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