During the week ending September 18, China's sulphuric acid market continued to decline but the pace of decline slowed significantly. The SMM China copper smelting acid index stood at 1,351 yuan/mt, down 67 yuan/mt or 4.7% from last Friday (1,418 yuan/mt), a sharp narrowing from the previous week's drop of 121.5 yuan/mt or 7.9%. Within the week, the decline was concentrated at the start, with a single-day drop of 43 yuan/mt on September 15 to 1,358 yuan/mt, followed by two flat sessions at 1,356 yuan/mt on September 16-17 and a slight adjustment to 1,351 yuan/mt on September 18.
Regional performance
East China: This week, east China was largely stable overall, with sporadic catch-up declines. Shandong, supported by October maintenance, prior orders, and low inventory, was the most resilient region nationwide this week. Quotations were mostly stable, with no concentrated price adjustments during the week, and mainstream quotations held at 1,440-1,600 yuan/mt. Anhui had no new quotations this week, holding at 1,120-1,170 yuan/mt, with prices stopping falling and stabilizing. Jiangxi, after cutting 80 yuan/mt on September 9, followed with another 200 yuan/mt cut on September 12, with current quotations at around 1,180-1,240 yuan/mt. Fujian held at 1,580-1,640 yuan/mt, flat MoM, with wait-and-see sentiment persisting.
South-west China: This week, south-west China showed a divergent pattern of "Yunnan catch-up declines, Sichuan continuing to grind lower, and Guangxi relatively independent." Yunnan, affected by the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, proactively cut prices to destock. Sichuan continued to grind lower, with phosphate fertiliser plants facing inventory backlogs and oversupply, and winter stockpiling providing limited support. The key going forward will be the implementation of sulphuric acid export and sulphur-sulphuric acid supply guarantee policies on December 31. Guangxi's trend was relatively independent, mainly because shipping Yunnan cargoes to Guangxi requires freight of 200-300 yuan/mt, making it uneconomical, with limited impact from external low-priced cargoes. Local plant inventories were normal and prices held steady.
Central China: This week, central China followed the decline overall before shifting to a stable, wait-and-see stance. Hubei Daye Nonferrous Metals paused price adjustments after three rounds of concentrated cuts totalling about 335 yuan/mt since end-August. Hunan quotations fell 150 yuan/mt to 1,150-1,250 yuan/mt, with shipment pressure clearly easing. Henan fell 100 yuan/mt to 1,100-1,200 yuan/mt. Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd.'s 35-day maintenance that began on August 20 is still ongoing, with cumulative sulphuric acid impact of about 50,000 mt.
North-west and north China: This week, north-west and north China became the most concentrated areas for catch-up declines. Shanxi cut 330 yuan/mt on September 15; Shaanxi prices were clearly dominated by downstream buyers, with insufficient regional demand; Gansu sharply lowered local quotations to 1,200-1,300 yuan/mt; Qinghai and Xinjiang held steady this week.
Northeast China and Inner Mongolia: This week, quotations in northeast China and Inner Mongolia held steady, with the nearing completion of maintenance at Chifeng Yuntong Copper as the main marginal information. Chifeng Yuntong Copper's August and September maintenance cumulatively affected about 250,000 mt of sulphuric acid production. The company plans to resume production at month-end, at which point regional supply will rebound significantly, and attention should be paid to the impact on prices around Chifeng.
International sulphuric acid prices continued to consolidate this week, with the Asian market stable for three consecutive weeks. Sulphuric acid (FOB South Korea) was quoted at $280-320/mt, averaging $300/mt; sulphuric acid (FOB India) was quoted at $300-350/mt, averaging $325/mt; sulphuric acid (CFR Indonesia) was quoted at $305-325/mt, averaging $315/mt.
The sulphur side continued to pull back. Sulphur (EXW Shandong) was last quoted at 7,257-7,650 yuan/mt, averaging 7,453.5 yuan/mt, down 575 yuan/mt or 7.2% from last Friday. The core reason remains insufficient downstream absorption capacity: monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) margins remain deeply inverted, autumn fertiliser procurement is lagging, and resistance to high-priced raw materials persists.
Internationally, sulphur (FOB Middle East) averaged $855/mt, flat MoM; sulphur (CIF Indonesia) was quoted at $960-1,050/mt, averaging $1,005/mt, down $20/mt from last Friday; sulphur (CFR India) average was lowered from $1,075/mt to $1,050/mt, down $25/mt WoW.
Looking ahead, China's sulphuric acid prices next week are expected to consolidate at lows with a weak bias, with limited room for further downside but conditions for a rebound not yet in place. Key focus will be on net supply reductions during the October maintenance peak season and the actual pace of phosphate fertiliser operating rates and autumn-winter reserve procurement.
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