Wafer Prices Diverge, 210R Cell Quotes Drift Higher [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, September 18:

Silica

prices

This week, silica market prices were generally stable. High-grade silica mine-mouth prices in Hubei remained at 310-350 yuan/mt, and high-grade silica mine-mouth prices in Inner Mongolia were 290-330 yuan/mt.

Production

Silica supply was generally ample, with supply-demand conditions basically stable.

Demand

Silicon plants mainly purchased as needed.

Silicon metal

prices

Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt. At the start of the week, bearish market sentiment dominated silicon metal prices amid expectations for Q4 polysilicon production cuts and production resumptions at some silicon enterprises in northwest China, keeping prices in the doldrums. Although silicon metal fundamentals in September still showed supply reductions MoM and slight inventory destocking, growing concerns over downstream demand kept prices under pressure. As the most-traded silicon metal contract fell to around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt, cost support and buying interest below futures prices strengthened, and prices may shift to consolidation. The subsequent trend will depend on whether polysilicon production cut expectations materialize, changes in operating rates at enterprises in the north and south, and capital sentiment.

Production

In September, operating rates at different silicon enterprises moved in both directions. In mid-September, silicon enterprises mainly increased production, with the industry operating rate up from early September but still down from end-August.

Inventory

SMM statistics show that as of September 17, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions stood at 486,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Wafer

prices:

Market prices for 18X wafers were 0.994-1.002 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers were 1.027-1.039 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers were 1.119-1.145 yuan/piece. After the rapid price decline earlier, some specifications have shown signs of stabilization or even slight rebounds, but improvement in market transactions remains limited. Cost side, expectations for polysilicon production cuts have provided some support to prices, but the transmission of cost support to the wafer segment still needs further verification. Demand side, improvement remains insufficient, and some enterprises still face inventory and shipment pressure. Wafer prices are expected to continue showing divergent trends across specifications in the short term.

Production

According to SMM's latest survey, September wafer production is expected to increase by 1-2 GW MoM, with supply rebounding slightly.

Inventory

Wafer inventory drawdown has been relatively slow, with inventory levels still showing a slight uptrend.

Solar cell

Prices

Price trends diverged significantly across sizes. 183 and 210N remained stable this week, with transaction ranges of 0.298-0.301 Yuan/W and 0.285-0.292 Yuan/W, respectively. 210R performed relatively firm, with the price range moving up to 0.299-0.31 Yuan/W—producers held tight inventory balance, supply was prioritized for export orders, and combined with cost support from earlier silicon wafer price increases, bullish sentiment among producers strengthened, with mainstream transaction prices holding at 0.31 Yuan/W. Downstream rigid demand release remained insufficient, with module makers mostly taking a wait-and-see stance and only scattered small orders transacted in the market. In the short term, prices across sizes are likely to remain stable.

Production

September industry production schedules pulled back slightly from August. Some specialized solar cell plants saw growth from newly launched technological transformation production lines, while certain integrated producers proactively adjusted production pace due to weak demand, and some mainstream producers underwent maintenance-related production cuts. After offsetting increases and decreases, total industry supply contracted slightly MoM.

Inventory

Industry inventory buildup pressure has not yet eased, with inventory continuing to rise and divergence across sizes becoming increasingly pronounced. 183 was most affected by inventory buildup, dragged by weakening demand in China and overseas. 210N high-efficiency cells were tight, while mid- and low-efficiency trading was mediocre, showing clear internal stratification. 210R maintained a tight inventory balance supported by export orders. Domestic orders showed no substantial volume increase, with demand recovery lagging supply contraction, and continued inventory accumulation constraining upside room for prices.

PV film

Prices:

EVA/PV-grade POE:

Current mainstream transaction prices for domestic PV-grade EVA resin spot cargo are 10,500-10,600 yuan/mt, with bullish market expectations persisting. Crude oil prices recently stayed high, and feedstock prices for ethylene and vinyl acetate also remained firm, keeping cost support for EVA resin relatively solid. In terms of supply, some plant maintenance shutdowns have not yet ended, leaving market supply available for sale relatively tight, with some traders halting quotations. In the short term, supply contraction combined with cost support is sustaining firm pricing sentiment, and EVA resin prices are expected to still have some upside room.

PV film:

Current prices are 5.42-5.5 yuan/m² for 420g transparent EVA film and 5.28-5.36 yuan/m² for 380g EPE film. On the cost side, raw material prices recently stayed high, further strengthening market expectations for subsequent EVA resin price increases. This week, film producers have successively started a new round of price negotiations, with a relatively clear overall intention to hold prices firm. Bargaining pace, currently mid-month, module makers are relatively passive in price negotiations, while still needing to secure raw material supply. Despite resistance to price increases, actual bargaining room is relatively limited. Overall, this round of film price increases has a solid foundation for implementation, with subsequent focus on actual transaction outcomes.

Production

This week, EVA units underwent product grade switches and maintenance shutdowns, leading to reduced PV-grade EVA production; film production schedules in September fluctuated only slightly MoM from August.

Inventory

Petrochemical plant inventories are currently at low levels, while film enterprises maintain inventories at reasonable levels.