SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin daytime session up 1.61% back above 400,000, night session closed at 405,890 up another 1.57%, LME tin inventory down to 4,965 mt, consolidating in 400,000-405,000 range after rate hike delivered
1. Futures
On September 17, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 401,680 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up 6,360 yuan/mt or 1.61%; intraday open at 398,430, high 402,600, low 396,310, prior settlement 395,320, settlement 399,630; open interest 30,820 lots (down 1,673 on the day), volume 100,500 lots, turnover 40.15 billion yuan. The night session extended gains, quoted at 405,890 yuan/mt as of 22:40, up 6,260 yuan/mt or 1.57%, with capital sentiment clearly recovering before and after the rate hike landed. For LME tin, LME 3M tin closed at $52,400/mt on September 16, up 0.6% (prior day $52,085/mt); latest quote on September 17 was $52,475/mt, giving back 0.43%; LME Cash-3M tin was at a discount of $251.44/mt on September 16, with open interest of 19,900 lots (down 372 lots on the day).
2. Spot
SMM #1 tin ingot spot quotes on September 17 ranged 397,700-401,100 yuan/mt, averaging 399,400 yuan/mt, up 3,100 yuan/mt from the prior day. Spot premiums remained tight: small-brand premiums of 500-1,000 yuan/mt against the October contract, Yunzi-brand premiums of 1,000-1,400 yuan/mt, Yunnan Tin premiums of 1,400-1,800 yuan/mt; after futures quickly reclaimed the 400,000 mark, downstream fear of high prices emerged, spot transactions concentrated in the early-session low-price window, wait-and-see sentiment intensified in the afternoon, and some suppliers locked in supply through pre-sales.
3. Inventory across three dimensions
LME tin inventory fell 25 mt to 4,965 mt on September 17 (prior day 4,990 mt, up 100 mt WoW), with registered warrants at 3,815 mt and cancelled warrants at 1,175 mt, a cancelled warrant ratio of 23.55%. SHFE tin warrants fell 275 mt to 5,221 mt on September 17. For China social inventory, national tin ingot social inventory stood at 9,425 mt in the week of September 11, up 1,533 mt WoW (+19.4%), driven mainly by Shanghai (+801 mt to 4,142 mt) and Suzhou (+386 mt to 1,170 mt); SHFE tin inventory was 7,652 mt (+1,153 mt). The inventory structure showed a divergence of "LME destocking at low levels + China social inventory rebound," with the social inventory recovery weakening the low-inventory narrative.
4. Macro
The US Fed unanimously approved a 25 bp rate hike at its 2:00 a.m. September 17 FOMC meeting, raising the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since March 2022. The dot plot showed that 16 officials expected at least one more rate hike in 2026, with the median policy-rate expectation at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027; CME FedWatch on September 16 indicated a 94.5% probability of a hike, and after the outcome was confirmed, market sentiment shifted to “buy the rumor, sell the news.” For the October meeting, the probability of no change was 50.2%, versus 49.8% for a 25 bp hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.041% intraday (the highest since July 2007), and the US dollar index rose above the 100 level, weighing on risk assets. Oil prices fell in tandem: on September 17, WTI dropped 2.14% to $95.428/bbl and Brent fell 2.97% to $102.685/bbl; the market focused on Trump’s Iran-related talks with heads of state outside China.
V. Fundamentals
Mine: Myanmar’s rainy season was gradually coming to an end, and tin concentrates exports showed a marginal recovery, but water levels and grade constrained growth within the year; in July, China imported 4,569 mt in physical content of tin concentrates from Myanmar (equivalent to 1,077 mt Sn, down 27% MoM), with an H2 monthly average of 1,300 mt Sn to China. Indonesia’s Timah exported 4,564 mt in August (up 52% MoM), with the pace of RKAB quota releases continuing; PT Timah was approved to purchase tin ore from local miners, further improving compliant supply. In the DRC, the Ebola Bundibugyo strain had recorded 6,186 cumulative confirmed cases and 3,007 deaths as of September 1 (a fatality rate of 48.6%), with regional operating risks persisting; combined tin ingot trading volume on JFX and ICDX totaled 3,610 mt in August, up 3.00% MoM and 30.09% YoY. Smelting: In the week of September 11, the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded to 68.14% (the highest since June), with Yunnan’s operating rate breaking above 90%; in July, refined tin imports were 2,269 mt (up 84.75% MoM), mainly due to a concentrated release of Indonesia’s backlogged export permits; TCs were 18,000 yuan/mt for Yunnan at 40% grade and 14,000 yuan/mt for Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan at 60% grade, unchanged. Demand: In July, the operating rate of SMM solder enterprises was 72.8% (down 6 pp MoM), remaining stable at 72.8% in July–August; peak-season strength was not yet evident, and downstream demand was mainly hand-to-mouth procurement; tin demand for AI computing power was expected to be 19.3kt in 2026E and 41.1kt in 2030E (CAGR 16%), and China’s server tin consumption was expected to grow at an average annual rate of 29% from 2026 to 2030, with the long-term narrative unchanged.
VI. Spot Market
T-1 (9/16) recap: SHFE tin briefly dipped to 389,420 yuan/mt in early trading before rebounding quickly, closing at 396,670 yuan/mt at midday; spot transactions were concentrated in the early-session low-price window, with suppliers tight on spot cargo and some pre-selling; after futures rose quickly, downstream buyers became price-averse, and trading turned muted. On T-day (9/17) intraday: With the US Fed rate hike now delivered, SHFE tin closed the night session at 405,890 yuan/mt, holding above the 400,000 mark, with a technically firm tone. A rebound in social inventory and repeated shifts in the AI narrative created mixed bullish and bearish signals. Tin is expected to move sideways within 400,000-405,000 intraday, with resistance at 405,000-410,000 and support at 395,000-400,000. In the night session, watch whether the 410,000 level can be broken.
Key judgment: After the rate hike landed, SHFE tin stabilized at 400,000. The rebound in social inventory is capping short-term upside room, but ore-side constraints and the long-term AI computing power narrative provide medium-term support. Tin is expected to drift higher intraday.
![The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed overnight at 405,050 yuan, up 1.36%, with the 405,000 yuan/mt level yet to be tested [SMM Tin Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ASfFn20251217171751.jpg)
![Rate Hike Lands as Expected; SHFE Tin Returns to 400,000 Yuan Mark [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CwQfz20251217171750.jpeg)
