SMM Tin Morning Brief | The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed overnight at 405,050, up 1.36%; LME tin at $52,750 with inventory of 4,965 mt, down 25 mt; the 405,000 yuan/mt level awaits confirmation — September 18, 2026 (Friday)
[Futures] LME tin closed at $52,750/mt on 9/17 (+50, +0.09%), with a high of 52,770 and a low of 51,960, narrowing its trading range. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed the daytime session on 9/17 at 401,680 yuan/mt (+6,360, +1.61%), with trading volume of 100,500 lots, as prices broke above the 400,000 yuan mark; in the night session into the early hours of 9/18, it extended gains by 1.36% to close at 405,050 yuan/mt, trading in a range of 403,460-406,680, with trading volume of 45,000 lots. Open interest fell from 30,800 lots to 30,100 lots (-700 lots, approximately -2.3%). Among the top seven longs on the leaderboard, positions were cut by 802 lots, while the top seven bears reduced positions by 1,217 lots, indicating stronger short covering.
[Macro] The US Fed unanimously passed a 25 bp rate hike to 3.75%-4.00% at the FOMC meeting in the early hours of 9/17, marking the first resumption of rate hikes in three and a half years. The dot plot showed expectations for one more hike within the year; the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.041% intraday, a new high since July 2007, and the US dollar index held above the 100 mark. Rate hike expectations have largely been priced in, and market sentiment has shifted to a "the shoe has dropped" stance.
[Fundamentals] Hard constraints on the ore side remain: production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40%-50% of previous levels, and tin concentrate exports to China in July totaled 1,077 mt Sn (-27% MoM); Indonesia's Timah exported 4,564 mt in August (+52% MoM), with the quota release pace continuing. On the smelting side: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stood at 18,000 yuan/mt (unchanged), while Guangxi/Jiangxi/Hunan 60% TCs were at 14,000 yuan/mt; SHFE tin inventory on 9/17 was 5,221 mt (-275 mt), continuing its destocking trend. China's social inventory rose by 1,533 mt last week to 9,425 mt, with the rebound trend continuing and inventory pressure rising marginally. On the demand side: the July solder operating rate was 72.8% (relatively low compared with the same period over the past five years), with just-in-time procurement dominating during the electronics off-season; WBMS reported a global refined tin deficit of 200 mt in July, with a cumulative deficit of 1,100 mt from January to July, indicating marginal improvement in supply and demand.
[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate on a strong note in the 405,000-410,000 yuan/mt range today, with attention on whether the 410,000 yuan mark above can be held, and support below at 400,000 yuan.
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![SHFE tin rose 1.61% in the daytime session, returning to 400,000. After the rate hike materialized, it consolidated in the 400,000-405,000 range. [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/reOma20251217171751.jpg)
![Rate Hike Lands as Expected; SHFE Tin Returns to 400,000 Yuan Mark [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CwQfz20251217171750.jpeg)
