Sep 17 SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment
Futures: Overnight, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2611 contract opened at 23,450 yuan/mt. After the open, bulls pushed prices higher, with the contract shooting up to an intraday high of 23,575 yuan/mt. After the spike, the upward momentum slowed, and prices consolidated at high levels. The intraday low was 23,405 yuan/mt, and the night session closed at 23,510 yuan/mt, up 120, or 0.51%. The daily chart formed a small bullish candlestick, with prices moving back above short-term moving averages. The KD indicator turned upward from lows, open interest pulled back slightly, and prices rebounded from recent lows in the short term, with bullish sentiment recovering somewhat.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on Sep 16, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price over the 10:15 a.m. closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2611) was 985 yuan/mt.
Warrant daily: SHFE data showed that on Sep 16, total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants stood at 23,776 mt, down 476 mt from the previous trading day.
Aluminum scrap: On Wednesday, SMM A00 aluminum price closed at 24,160 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Aluminum scrap prices in some regions played catch-up, with Jiangxi, Foshan, and Hunan raising prices by 100 yuan/mt in a single day to make up for gains over the previous two days. In terms of price spreads, on Sep 16, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,438 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,217 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the tight raw material supply situation remained unchanged, and the scarcity of compliant, invoiced aluminum scrap continued to rise, constraining production and procurement at scrap utilization enterprises. Against this backdrop, some aluminum scrap yards actively sold cargoes to take advantage of high aluminum prices while reducing purchases and stockpiling, leading to a phased release of market supply.
Silicon metal: On Sep 16, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 price in east China was flat; oxygen-blown #553 price was lowered by 50 yuan/mt; #521 price was lowered by 50 yuan/mt; #441 price was lowered by 50 yuan/mt; #421 price was lowered by 50 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use was flat; #3303 price was lowered by 50 yuan/mt. Prices for certain silicon grades in south China, Guangdong, Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, and northwest China were lowered. Silicon prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai were flat.
Markets outside China: Current ADC12 offers outside China pulled back slightly to $3,080-3,180/mt. As domestic prices rose, import losses narrowed to within 300 yuan/mt.
Summary: On Wednesday, the ADC12 market consolidated on a strong note overall, with SMM ADC12 price up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 24,250 yuan/mt. Cost side, procurement difficulty for compliant aluminum scrap increased somewhat. In particular, reverse invoicing oversight in Henan, Jiangxi, and other regions has tightened further recently, with business suspensions or enhanced verification in some areas, putting upward pressure on actual raw material costs for enterprises. With stronger cost support, the downside for ADC12 prices is relatively solid, and some enterprises still have expectations for further price increases. Demand side, end-user orders have improved from the off-season but have yet to show significant volume growth. The traditional peak-season effect is still in a gradual realization phase, and downstream buyers remain primarily engaged in just-in-time procurement. In the short term, ADC12 is expected to consolidate on a strong note. Tax invoice compliance oversight is a key variable. If reverse invoicing verification tightens further, the contraction in compliant aluminum scrap supply will continue to support raw material costs and solidify the bottom for ADC12 prices. In the short term, cost support below is solid, and upside room for prices will depend on peak-season demand realization and raw material policy changes.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
![[Spot alumina stays stable; ex-China premium remains at 312 yuan/mt - SMM Alumina Morning Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VTjoW20251217171653.jpg)
