9.17 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract retreated after a rapid rise, opening at 2,700 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 2,705 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, dipping to an intraday low of 2,684 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 2,689 yuan/mt. The daily candlestick formed a small bearish candlestick with an upper shadow, indicating that selling pressure above 2,700 yuan/mt remains evident and the rebound lacked sustainability. Trading volume continued to shrink, falling 13,376 lots from the previous trading day to 42,278 lots, with market activity continuing to decline as both bulls and bears turned cautious and wait-and-see. Open interest edged up 1,549 lots to 232,000 lots, with overall capital changes relatively small, suggesting market divergence persists but no clear directional positioning has formed. From a technical perspective, the current closing price of 2,689 yuan/mt is slightly above the MA5 (2,687), but remains suppressed by the MA10 (2,700.8), MA60 (2,736.25), MA40 (2,730.23), and MA20 (2,739.05) in succession. The moving average system maintains a bearish alignment, and the medium-term suppression pattern has not improved. However, the price is closely aligned with the MA5, and short-term moving average support is showing slightly. Overall, the futures market exhibits weak characteristics of "contracting volume consolidation, bearish moving average suppression, and a low center of gravity," with the short-term direction still unclear. Resistance above is seen at the 2,700 yuan/mt round-number level and near the MA10 (2,700.8), while support below is watched at 2,684 yuan/mt and the previous low of 2,670 yuan/mt. Before trading volume effectively expands and prices break above short-term moving average resistance, the market is expected to continue consolidating on a weak note at low levels.
Bauxite: As of September 16, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index was reported at $72.1/mt, up $0.07/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 585 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) averaged 540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Henan) averaged 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) averaged 327.5 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 495 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) averaged 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) averaged 515 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $67/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF averaged $60.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Guinean bauxite FOB averaged $40/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; SMM Guinean bauxite CIF averaged $71.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Malaysian bauxite CIF averaged $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) averaged $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Ghanaian bauxite CIF averaged $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day; Indonesian bauxite FOB averaged $37/mt in physical content, flat from the previous trading day; bauxite CFR (Turkey) was priced at $72.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; bauxite FOB (Pakistan) averaged $58.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.
Spot alumina: On September 16, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,674.36 yuan/mt, down 0.42 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,676.50 yuan/mt, down 0.17 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,696.79 yuan/mt, down 1.32 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,697.03 yuan/mt, down 0.49 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,706.95 yuan/mt, down 0.52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,587.50 yuan/mt, down 0.67 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on September 16, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 21.64 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant daily: On September 16, total registered alumina warrants stood at 274,100 mt, up 2,103 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 40,600 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 46,608 mt, up 2,103 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 197,600 mt, flat from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China: As of September 16, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.73. Based on this calculation, the price translates to approximately 2,986.6 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, 312.24 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina index.
Summary: As of now, spot alumina prices have remained stable overall, with limited fluctuations. Transaction prices were mixed, but the central tendency showed no significant change. Futures prices pulled back slightly, with spot and futures trends diverging somewhat. Supply side, China's weekly alumina production continued to increase, mainly driven by an alumina refinery in Shanxi fully restoring production levels, while other regions operated steadily with no notable changes. Outside China, bauxite supply issues in the Indonesian market may affect production going forward, but the impact remains unclear for now, and SMM will continue to monitor the situation. Inventory side, total alumina inventory in China declined, with structural divergence: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters held at current levels with relatively small changes overall; finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up, mainly because the nationwide operating rate recovered somewhat, leading to some accumulation of finished products at plants; port inventories dropped sharply, mainly due to re-exports of bonded-zone cargoes and delays in unloading some shipments, with the sharp decline in port inventories driving overall inventories lower. Looking ahead, alumina prices are expected to remain stable; on the inventory side, port cargo transshipment and unloading will continue, but rising domestic production will offset this, with overall inventory expected to rebound slightly.
[All data other than public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]
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