Tin Midday Commentary, September 15, 2026
1. Price Review
Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 393,400-396,300 yuan/mt, averaging 394,850 yuan/mt, down 7,750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened lower and consolidated downward today, hitting an intraday high of 397,470 yuan/mt and a low of 391,410 yuan/mt. It closed the morning at 394,920 yuan/mt, down 8,760 yuan/mt, or 2.17%, from the previous trading day's settlement price of 403,680 yuan/mt, and briefly approached the 390,000-yuan mark during the session.
On the LME, 3M tin stopped falling and rebounded to $52,185/mt, up $355/mt, or 0.68%, from the previous trading day.
2. Spot Market
Spot trading was active today. Since yesterday, restocking sentiment among downstream enterprises and traders has clearly picked up after prices pulled back. Although some downstream enterprises remain on the sidelines, watching whether prices have further room to fall, they release some replenishment demand when prices break through key levels, and overall buying interest is relatively strong. Most suppliers have become less eager to sell, controlling the pace of shipments by raising premiums. Willingness to hold spot prices firm has clearly strengthened, partially offsetting weakness in futures. On the demand side, current demand is moderate but remains divergent: high-end electronics demand is concentrated and stable; traditional electronics orders are still dominated by scattered small orders; tinplate demand is relatively stable, but it is hard to see significant growth given the overall consumption environment, and competition within the industry is intensifying; tin chemicals mainly correspond to the PVC market, and PVC is dragged down by a sluggish end-user construction sector. Industry inventory remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists.
3. Overall Outlook
The continued pullback in SHFE tin is primarily driven by ongoing pricing-in of expectations for a US interest rate hike in September. On the fundamentals side, although the rainy season has ended in Myanmar mining areas, water levels and ore grade issues still constrain the pace of resumption. Indonesia's revised export volumes for July and August both exceeded 4,500 mt, and the market is still awaiting further confirmation of export pace from Statistics Indonesia data. Supply disruptions at both the ore and smelting ends have not yet been resolved and continue to provide downside support for prices.
In the short term, SHFE tin is in a standoff between macro-driven pricing and firm spot offers. The FOMC meeting is being held today and tomorrow, and market sentiment remains cautious before the outcome is known, with macro pressure not yet lifted. However, the LME has already stabilized first, and in the spot market, traders are increasingly holding prices firm with low inventory and higher premiums, strengthening support at lower levels. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate around 388,000-400,000 yuan/mt in the short term, with close attention on whether the 390,000-yuan level holds. A directional move will need to wait for guidance from the Fed's rate decision and the chair's press conference.
![SHFE tin fell another 2.22% overnight to close at 394,730 yuan/mt. Both longs and shorts remained cautious ahead of the September FOMC meeting. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/cUElw20251217171752.jpg)
![September Rate Hike Probability Rises to 90%, 390,000 Level Becomes Key Support [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ASfFn20251217171751.jpg)
