Sep 15 SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment
Futures: Overnight, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2611 contract opened at 23,210 yuan/mt, quickly shot up to 23,325 yuan/mt after the open, then bulls lost momentum and prices pulled back step by step, dipping to a low of 23,160 yuan/mt during the session before consolidating to recover. The night session closed at 23,260 yuan/mt, edging up 0.09%. The daily chart formed a small bullish candlestick, with prices rebounding from lows, the pace of indicator decline slowing, and open interest pulling back slightly. After short-term bearish pressure was released, the market entered a consolidation and recovery pattern.
Basis daily: According to SMM data, on September 14, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2611) at 10:15 was 925 yuan/mt.
Warrant daily: SHFE data showed that on September 14, total registered warrants for cast aluminum alloy stood at 23,534 mt, up 430 mt from the previous trading day.
Aluminum scrap: On Monday, SMM A00 aluminum price closed at 24,080 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Scrap aluminum market prices followed with declines of 100-150 yuan/mt. On the price spread front, on September 14, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,459 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,238 yuan/mt. Supply side, the tight raw material supply pattern remained unchanged, and the scarcity of compliant, invoiced aluminum scrap continued to rise, constraining production and purchasing at scrap utilization enterprises. Against this backdrop, some aluminum scrap yards actively sold amid high aluminum prices while reducing purchases and stockpiling, leading to a phased release of market supply.
Inventory: Today, daily inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots across three major consumption regions in China was reported at 12,947 mt, down 205 mt from the previous trading day.
Silicon metal: On September 14, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 price in east China fell 50 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 price fell 50 yuan/mt; #521 price fell 50 yuan/mt; #441 price fell 50 yuan/mt; #421 price held steady; #421 for silicone use held steady; #3303 price held steady. Individual silicon prices in south China, Guangdong, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, northwest China, and Shanghai moved lower. Silicon prices in Kunming, Xinjiang, and Sichuan held steady.
Markets outside China: Current overseas ADC12 offers pulled back slightly to $3,080-3,180/mt, with import losses at around 400 yuan/mt.
Summary: On Monday, ADC12 market prices were mainly slightly lower, with SMM ADC12 price down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 24,200 yuan/mt. The price weakness was mainly driven by declines in aluminum prices and futures, with some enterprises adjusting quotes in line with the market, but the overall extent of price cuts was relatively limited, reflecting that enterprises still hold certain expectations of cost-side support and are reluctant to make significant proactive price concessions. Demand side, downstream purchasing overall maintained a restocking pace. Although some purchasing demand was released after prices pulled back, a clear bargain-hunting restocking trend has yet to form, and traditional peak season demand improvement remains relatively limited. Overall, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term, with focus on raw material-side changes and whether September peak season demand can be further released.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
![[Spot alumina prices remain stable; supply-demand surplus pattern unchanged - SMM Alumina Morning Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/wStpx20251217171650.jpg)
