9.15 Alumina Morning Comment
Futures Market:
Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract showed a bottom-out-and-rebound pattern, opening at 2,680 yuan/mt, dipping to an intraday low of 2,670 yuan/mt before finding buying support, then consolidating higher to touch an intraday high of 2,699 yuan/mt, approaching the 2,700 yuan/mt round-number mark, and finally closing at 2,696 yuan/mt. The daily candlestick formed a solid bullish line, indicating that support around the 2,670 yuan/mt level is relatively effective and that early signs of short-term stabilization are emerging. Trading volume shrank notably, falling 23,730 lots from the previous session to 58,818 lots, as market activity cooled and bears showed less willingness to press further; open interest edged up 281 lots to 230,000 lots, with overall capital flows relatively small and market sentiment turning cautious and wait-and-see. Technically, the current closing price of 2,696 yuan/mt remains below MA5 (2,702), MA10 (2,739.4), MA20 (2,749.9), and MA40 (2,735.3), with moving averages still in bearish alignment and the medium-term resistance pattern unchanged, though the price is now approaching MA5 (2,702), suggesting easing short-term moving-average pressure. Overall, the futures market is showing a pattern of shrinking-volume rebound, approaching short-term moving averages, and slowing bearish momentum, pointing to a need for short-term stabilization and repair, but a trend reversal still requires breaking through the multiple layers of moving-average resistance above. On the upside, watch the 2,700 yuan/mt round-number mark and resistance near MA5 (2,702); if prices can firmly hold above and break through these levels, rebound room could open further. On the downside, support is seen at 2,670 yuan/mt and the previous low around 2,650 yuan/mt.
Bauxite:
As of September 14, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index was reported at $72.1/mt, up $0.07/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 585 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 590 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 520 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 365 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 327.5 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 495 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was reported at 515 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was reported at $67/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was reported at $60.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average FOB price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $40/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $71.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite was reported at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite (washed) was reported at $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Ghanaian bauxite was reported at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the average FOB price of Indonesian bauxite was reported at $37/mt in physical content, flat from the previous trading day; the CFR price of bauxite (Turkey) was reported at $72.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day; the average FOB price of bauxite (Pakistan) was reported at $58.5/dmt, flat from the previous trading day.
Spot alumina prices:
On September 14, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,675.21 yuan/mt, down 0.36 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,676.86 yuan/mt, down 0.38 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,699.13 yuan/mt, down 0.32 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,697.74 yuan/mt, down 0.50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,707.96 yuan/mt, down 0.97 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,589.05 yuan/mt, down 0.23 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Spot-futures price spread daily:
According to SMM data, on September 14, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 12.79 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.
Warrant daily:
On September 14, total registered alumina warrants stood at 268,100 mt, up 311 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 5,092 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 40,600 mt, up 4,206 mt from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, flat from the previous trading day; total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 197,600 mt, down 3,895 mt from the previous trading day.
Markets outside China:
As of September 14, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina prices stood at $349/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Australia-China ocean freight rate stood at $33.40/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the US dollar selling rate against the yuan was around 6.72. Based on this calculation, the price translates to approximately 2,985.22 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 310 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index.
Summary:
As of now, spot alumina prices have remained stable, with limited overall fluctuations. Transaction prices were mixed, but the midpoint showed no significant change. Futures prices pulled back slightly, with spot and futures trends diverging somewhat. On the supply side, China's weekly alumina production continued to increase, mainly driven by an alumina enterprise in Shanxi fully restoring production levels, while operations in other regions remained stable with no notable changes. Outside China, bauxite supply issues in the Indonesian market may affect production going forward, but the impact remains unclear for now, and SMM will continue to monitor the situation. On the inventory side, total alumina inventories in China declined, with structural divergence: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters held at current levels with relatively small changes; finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up, mainly due to a recovery in the national operating rate, leading to some accumulation of finished products at plants; port inventories dropped sharply, mainly affected by the re-export of bonded-zone cargoes and the unloading of some shipments, with the sharp decline in port inventories driving overall inventories lower. Looking ahead, alumina prices are expected to remain stable; on the inventory side, port cargo re-exports and unloading will continue, but rising domestic production will provide an offset, with overall inventory expected to rebound slightly.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]
![Aluminum alloy night session retreated after rapid rise, closing with a small bullish candle at low levels and a slight rebound [SMM cast aluminum alloy morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/WOsGj20251217171651.jpg)
