Peak season expectations gap emerges, scrap battery prices narrowly stagnant [SMM scrap battery weekly review]

SMM, September 11:

This week, domestic scrap battery prices rose first and then fell, with limited overall fluctuations. After the pulse of concentrated shipments by recyclers last week faded, scrap battery recycling volume fell 10%-20% WoW this week. Recyclers mostly adopted a fast-in, fast-out, low-inventory operating strategy, with neutral market sentiment and trading in line with market conditions. An SMM survey shows that 80% of surveyed recyclers expect scrap battery retirement volume in September to rebound seasonally by 10%-30% from August, but actual recycling growth since September has been insufficient and weak YoY, with the industry showing signs of "underperforming in the peak season." Smelters' raw material arrivals briefly improved at the start of the week before returning to stable levels; downstream battery enterprises mainly relied on long-term contracts and just-in-time procurement, with September peak season stockpiling yet to pick up. Scrap battery prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Going forward, the focus will be on mid-September battery makers' stockpiling implementation, the transmission effect of lead prices on downstream raw material costs, and the pace of recovery in scrap battery retirement volume.