[Imported copper concentrate spot premium initially fell then rose during the week, with SHFE/LME price ratio sharply recovering at week's end [SMM Yangshan copper weekly review]]

Published: Sep 11, 2026 16:21

Save

This week (September 7-September 11), the weekly average transaction price range for Yangshan copper premium warrants was $74-85/mt, QP September, with an average price of $79/mt; the weekly average transaction price range for B/L was $75-85/mt, QP October, with an average price of $85/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was $46-59/mt, QP October, with an average price of $52/mt. As of September 7, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper against the SHFE copper 2610 contract, excluding exchange rates, was 1.1342, with an import loss of approximately 368.3 yuan/mt, nearly flat WoW. As of Friday, the backwardation structure of the LME copper October date contract narrowed WoW, and the September date and October date contracts shifted to a contango structure, with a carry spread of $47.06/mt. Currently, offers for pyrometallurgy registered copper B/L are scarce in the market; mainstream offers for pyrometallurgy registered copper warrants are around $110-120/mt; mainstream offers for EQ copper are around $50-70/mt.

During the week, imported copper premiums showed a trend of first declining and then rebounding. As copper prices rose and shot up, the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, downstream demand remained weak, and the LME backwardation structure narrowed, with the September date contract shifting to a contango structure, putting spot premiums for imported copper under pressure. However, the market reversed on Friday, with copper prices plunging and the SHFE/LME price ratio improving significantly, boosting downstream demand. Meanwhile, persistent congestion at domestic ports and low domestic inventories limited available supply in the market, giving suppliers strong confidence to hold prices firm, and offers in the market rose notably on Friday.

According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (September 10), copper inventories in domestic bonded zones decreased by approximately 1,800 mt from the previous period (September 3) to 38,800 mt. Among them, Shanghai bonded zone inventory decreased by 2,400 mt to 35,700 mt, while Guangdong bonded zone inventory increased by 600 mt to 3,100 mt. Shanghai bonded zone inventory shifted from inventory buildup to destocking, mainly due to logistics delays and a poor SHFE/LME price ratio leading to lower arrivals.

Looking ahead, downstream demand is expected to continue recovering after copper prices weaken, the LME backwardation structure is narrowing, and domestic social inventories of copper cathode remain low with port congestion persisting, so the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue rebounding. In the short term, available spot supply of imported registered copper remains tight, which will give suppliers confidence to hold prices firm, and imported spot premiums are expected to have upside room next week.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

Images in this article contain AI-translated captions for reference only.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

7 hours ago

Alchemy Resources Starts Drilling Copper-Gold Targets at Yellow Mountain

Alchemy Resources announced on September 11 that reverse-circulation drilling has commenced across its Yellow Mountain and Overflow projects in New South Wales, Australia, with up to 15 holes planned during the latest exploration campaign. At the 80%-owned Yellow Mountain project, drilling will test extensions to previously identified copper-gold and polymetallic mineralisation, as well as two previously undrilled geophysical targets. Previous drilling at Yellow Mountain returned an intersection of 113 metres grading 1.17% copper equivalent, comprising 0.33% copper, 0.37 g/t gold, 24.3 g/t silver, 0.86% lead and 1.23% zinc. The latest drilling campaign is designed to test whether the known mineralised system extends into newly identified target areas. The program will also include drilling at the Overflow project, where Alchemy is targeting extensions to existing mineralisation along strike and at depth. Overflow currently hosts an inferred mineral resource of approximately 342,000 ounces of gold equivalent and contains gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc mineralisation. The commencement of drilling provides a near-term test of the scale and continuity of mineralisation at Yellow Mountain. The previously reported broad copper-gold-polymetallic intersection indicates potential for a sizeable mineralised system, while the newly defined geophysical targets provide additional exploration upside. Drilling results will be important in determining whether the mineralised footprint can be materially expanded.

7 hours ago

Freeport CEO Signals Likely Go-Ahead for $4.5 Billion Bagdad Copper Expansion

Freeport-McMoRan Chief Executive Officer Kathleen Quirk has indicated that the company expects to move forward with the proposed expansion of its Bagdad copper mine in Arizona, marking a stronger commitment to the project ahead of a formal investment decision. Speaking at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on September 10, Quirk said the project still requires input from Freeport's board but that she expects the company will proceed. She described the expansion as a roughly three-year construction project and noted that no major permitting hurdles are expected. Freeport's latest project estimates put capital expenditure for the Bagdad expansion at approximately US$4.5 billion, around 30% above the previous US$3.5 billion estimate, reflecting cost escalation, scope changes and additional engineering. The project would more than double concentrator capacity at Bagdad and is expected to add approximately 200–250 million lb, or around 91,000–113,000 tonnes, of copper production annually, alongside an additional 10–12 million lb of molybdenum. Bagdad currently has a reserve life exceeding 80 years. Freeport's Q2 2026 regulatory filing had described the project as being prepared for a potential investment decision during the second half of 2026. The latest comments therefore represent a more positive signal from management on the likelihood of development, although formal board approval has not yet been announced. A decision to proceed with Bagdad would represent one of Freeport's most significant near-term copper growth investments in the US. The potential addition of more than 90,000 tonnes per year of copper would materially increase Freeport's US output, although first production would remain several years away given the expected construction period. Attention will now turn to formal board approval and a final investment decision.

7 hours ago

Chile July Copper Output Falls 9.4% YoY; Escondida Slumps 22.1%

According to foreign media reports citing data from the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), Chile's copper production fell 9.4% year on year in July 2026, as output declined sharply at several major operations in the world's largest copper-producing country. Copper production at state-owned Codelco fell 5% year on year to 112,800 tonnes in July, extending a period of weaker output for the company amid operational challenges at key mines. Production at BHP-controlled Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, dropped more sharply, falling 22.1% year on year to 89,400 tonnes. In contrast, output at Collahuasi, jointly owned by Anglo American and Glencore, increased 12.3% year on year to 38,400 tonnes. Chile's National Statistics Institute (INE) separately reported mine copper production of 403,424 tonnes in July. The country's Mining Production Index fell 7.2% year on year, while metallic mining activity declined 10.7%, mainly due to lower copper extraction and processing. Foreign media reports also cited severe weather in northern Chile and maintenance at major operations as factors weighing on July production. Cochilco currently forecasts Chilean copper production at approximately 5.27 million tonnes in 2026, down 2.6% year on year, before recovering 5.2% to around 5.55 million tonnes in 2027. The sharp July decline highlights continued pressure on Chilean mine supply. The 22.1% year-on-year drop at Escondida is particularly significant given the mine's scale, while lower Codelco production further weighs on national output. Although Collahuasi recorded higher production, the increase was insufficient to offset weakness elsewhere. A recovery in major operations during the remainder of the year will be important if Chile is to limit the full-year decline projected by Cochilco.

7 hours ago