Zambia’s Refined Copper Exports Rise 7.4% in H1 2026 as Domestic Copper Production Grows 0.45%

SMM ANALYSIS |  AFRICA COPPER

Zambia’s Refined Copper Exports Rise 7.4% in H1 2026 as Domestic Copper Production Grows 0.45%

Refined copper shipments reached 446.1 kt in January–June, while national copper production increased only 0.45%. The divergence reflects shipment timing, third-party feed and uneven performance across Zambia’s production base rather than a one-for-one rise in mine supply.

11 September 2026  |  SMM Analysis

Zambia’s refined copper exports strengthened in the first half of 2026 even as growth in domestic copper production remained marginal. Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats) data show cumulative refined copper export volumes of 446.1 thousand metric tonnes in January–June 2026, up 7.4% from 415.2 thousand tonnes a year earlier. Over the same period, the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development reported aggregate national copper production of 447,181 tonnes, up just 0.45% from 445,175 tonnes in H1 2025.

The near-equality of the two headline volumes is striking, but it should not be read as a direct material balance. Refined copper exports and national copper production measure different parts of the supply chain. Export volumes can be influenced by inventory movements, the timing of sales, toll treatment and third-party concentrate processed in Zambia. The more important signal is the difference in growth rates: exports accelerated much faster than underlying national production.

The 7.4% H1 increase was not the result of uniformly stronger shipments throughout the period. ZamStats’ cumulative series shows that by the end of May, refined copper exports stood at 364.4 kt, only 1.3 kt above the 363.1 kt recorded in the first five months of 2025. The year-on-year gap widened sharply in June, when cumulative exports reached 446.1 kt versus 415.2 kt a year earlier.

Converting the official cumulative series into monthly volumes shows why. June 2026 shipments were approximately 81.7 kt, compared with 52.1 kt in June 2025, an increase of about 56.8% year on year based on SMM calculations. This late-period acceleration accounted for most of the first-half increase, suggesting that shipment timing and the release of material into the export channel were at least as important as underlying production growth.

Copper’s importance to Zambia’s trade position remained substantial. ZamStats reported total exports of K29.6 billion in June, while refined copper export earnings were K20.0 billion. On the stated values, refined copper alone represented roughly 68% of total export earnings for the month. This concentration means changes in shipment volumes, prices and timing can have an immediate effect on Zambia’s merchandise trade performance.

The production side of the market was considerably less dynamic. The Ministry of Mines said aggregate copper production rose from 445,175 tonnes in H1 2025 to 447,181 tonnes in H1 2026. Higher output at Kansanshi, Konkola Copper Mines, Lumwana, Lubambe, Sentinel and Mufulira was partly offset by weaker production elsewhere, including marginal declines at Mopani Copper Mines and NFC Africa Mining linked to maintenance and operational challenges.

Company-level data support the view that some of Zambia’s largest operations were growing faster than the national total. Kansanshi produced 89.3 kt in H1 2026, up from 86.6 kt a year earlier, while Sentinel produced 95.6 kt compared with 89.5 kt. Barrick’s Lumwana produced 73.0 kt, up from 71.0 kt. The pattern implies that gains at major assets were being offset by weaker performance elsewhere in the domestic production base.

The weakest part of the domestic supply picture was small-scale copper production. The Ministry reported a 35.2% year-on-year decline in H1 2026, attributing the fall to inadequate domestic sulphuric acid supply and the delayed end of the rainy season. This is important because acid availability directly affects leach-based copper production and can constrain smaller operators more quickly than large integrated mines with captive smelting and acid production.

First Quantum’s disclosures illustrate the difference in operating resilience. The company said its Kansanshi smelter produced about 1.1 million tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2025, almost all of which was consumed on site. Following the smelter expansion, additional capacity from Acid Plant 5 created scope for surplus sales, and First Quantum reported approximately 36,000 tonnes of acid sales in Q2 2026. The coexistence of third-party acid sales and reported shortages among smaller miners suggests that availability, commercial allocation and regional pricing - not only aggregate production capacity - are becoming important determinants of copper output.

There are several mechanisms that can produce a divergence between refined copper exports and national mine production. The first is inventory and sales timing. First Quantum reported Q2 2026 copper sales of 93.3 kt, around 7.2 kt below production, explicitly attributing the difference to timing. The same effect can work in reverse when previously produced material is shipped in a later month, lifting exports without an equivalent increase in current-period mine output.

The second is third-party feed. First Quantum disclosed sales of 20,152 tonnes of copper anode attributable to third-party concentrate purchases in the six months to June 2026, compared with 8,609 tonnes in the same period of 2025. This does not explain Zambia’s national export data on its own, but it demonstrates that the country’s smelting and refining system can process material that is not identical to locally mined production. As regional concentrate flows deepen, refined export volumes may increasingly reflect Zambia’s role as a processing hub as well as a mine producer.

Zambia’s National Three Million Metric Tonnes Copper Production Strategy targets 3 million tonnes of annual copper production by 2031. On a simple annualised basis, H1 2026 production equates to about 894,000 tonnes, or just under 30% of the 2031 target. Annualisation is not a forecast because mine sequencing and project ramp-ups can materially change second-half output, but the comparison shows that the target cannot be reached through incremental growth of the current magnitude.

The medium-term supply pipeline is more constructive. First Quantum’s S3 circuit at Kansanshi was operating above design throughput in Q2 2026, and the company maintained 2026 copper production guidance of 175–205 kt for Kansanshi and 190–220 kt for Sentinel. Barrick’s Lumwana Super Pit Expansion also remained on schedule, with first expanded copper production targeted for the end of Q1 2028. These projects can lift Zambia’s production base, but the H1 data show that broad-based growth will also depend on reducing operating constraints at existing mines and improving the inputs available to smaller producers.

Zambia’s H1 2026 copper data point to a stronger export channel but only a modest expansion in underlying mine supply. The 7.4% increase in refined copper exports is positive for trade earnings and indicates that more metal moved through Zambia’s export system, particularly in June. However, the much smaller 0.45% increase in national copper production means the export data should not be interpreted as evidence of an equivalent improvement in domestic mine output.

For the remainder of 2026, the more meaningful indicators will be whether higher production at large operations broadens across the sector, whether sulphuric acid availability improves for smaller producers, and whether the ramp-up of expansion projects produces sustained gains rather than short-term shipment effects. Zambia’s progress toward 3 million tonnes will ultimately be determined by new and expanded mine capacity, operating reliability, processing inputs and infrastructure - not by export growth alone.