[SMM Baja] Harga Baja Domestik India Naik karena Biaya Bahan Baku Lebih Tinggi

[Turkey] Taking advantage of tightening market supply over the past few weeks, Turkish mills continued to push up rebar offers, though buying demand at these new price levels has cooled significantly. Domestically, Turkish rebar prices increased to 615–620 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT). Regionally, major mills in the Marmara area raised their ex-works prices by 5–10 USD/tonne to 640–645 USD/tonne EXW, although actual transaction prices remained stalled at around 615 USD/tonne. Two mills in the Izmir region lifted prices by 5 USD/tonne to 610 USD/tonne EXW, while a large mill in Iskenderun maintained its willingness to sell at 602 USD/tonne EXW. The export market mirrored this upward trend: a major Marmara mill hiked its rebar export offer by a significant 20 USD/tonne to 625 USD/tonne FOB, and its wire coil offer by 15 USD/tonne to 630 USD/tonne FOB. However, with export demand already very weak at previous price levels, transactions are expected to be extremely sparse in the near term.

Malaysian steel prices moved higher overall this week. In the flat steel market, mainstream domestic offers for S275JR HRC rose by MYR 40/tonne week on week to MYR 2,190/tonne (approximately USD 537/tonne) EXW. The increase may have been partly driven by the incident at Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, which temporarily heightened expectations of tighter regional supply and supported Malaysian HRC prices. However, Formosa Ha Tinh has since announced the resumption of production, easing concerns over the disruption. The long steel market also strengthened, with 16mm B500B rebar rising by MYR 30/tonne week on week to around MYR 2,150/tonne (approximately USD 527/tonne) EXW. Meanwhile, C12D wire rod remained stable at approximately MYR 2,250/tonne (around USD 551/tonne) delivered, around MYR 100/tonne above the rebar price. Overall, HRC and rebar prices increased during the week, while the wire rod market remained stable, resulting in slightly divergent movements across products. Outlook: Looking ahead to next week, the resumption of production at Formosa Ha Tinh may further ease regional supply concerns, potentially prompting a modest correction or readjustment in Malaysian HRC offers. Nevertheless, as the mill’s production capacity is expected to recover gradually, a sharp near-term decline appears unlikely. Rebar prices may remain firm with support from production costs and mill offers, although limited end-user demand could restrict further increases. Wire rod prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly around MYR 2,250/tonne delivered.

Harga HRC pekan ini melemah dibandingkan pekan lalu, dengan sentimen perdagangan secara keseluruhan memburuk. Dari sisi pasokan, dampak pemeliharaan lini penggulungan menurun secara mingguan, dan produksi HRC secara keseluruhan pulih. Dari sisi permintaan, permintaan nyata naik secara mingguan, tetapi permintaan musim puncak September-Oktober belum sepenuhnya terwujud. Dari sisi persediaan, data SMM menunjukkan persediaan sosial HRC di 86 gudang nasional (sampel besar) sebesar 4,6625 juta ton, naik 21.100 ton secara mingguan, atau +0,45% secara mingguan, dan +28,06% secara tahunan. Berdasarkan wilayah, semua wilayah mengalami penumpukan persediaan kecuali Tiongkok Utara yang mencatat sedikit pengurangan persediaan. Dari sisi biaya, kenaikan harga kokas putaran kelima diterapkan pekan ini. Ke depan, negosiasi kenaikan harga kokas putaran keenam telah dimulai, dan dukungan biaya untuk HRC tetap terjaga. Ditambah dengan pabrik baja yang saat ini beroperasi dalam kondisi rugi, pabrik-pabrik mempertahankan sikap harga yang relatif tegas, memberikan dukungan bawah yang kuat. Meskipun permintaan restocking diperkirakan menjelang libur Festival Pertengahan Musim Gugur dan Hari Nasional, permintaan musim puncak belum terkonfirmasi. Dengan tekanan permintaan yang membatasi pergerakan naik yang signifikan, harga HRC diperkirakan akan berkonsolidasi pada level saat ini pekan depan, dengan kontrak paling aktif diperkirakan diperdagangkan pada kisaran 3.280-3.390.