Rare Earth Market: Pr-Nd Stops Falling and Rebounds, Downstream Chasing Highs Limited with Scant Transactions [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]

SMM, September 10: Rare earth market prices diverged today. Specifically, in the oxide market, Pr-Nd oxide prices rose by 1,000 yuan/mt, dysprosium oxide prices fell by 5,000 yuan/mt, terbium oxide prices were flat, gadolinium oxide prices were flat, holmium oxide prices were flat, and erbium oxide prices rose by 7,500 yuan/mt.

In the metal market, Pr-Nd alloy prices rose by 1,500 yuan/mt, dysprosium-iron alloy prices fell by 5,000 yuan/mt, terbium metal prices were flat, gadolinium-iron alloy prices were flat, holmium-iron prices were flat, and lanthanum-cerium metal (alloy grade) prices were flat.

In markets outside China, FOB prices for Pr-Nd oxide and medium-heavy rare earth products were generally weak this week: terbium oxide FOB and terbium metal FOB prices each fell by $7/kg, while neodymium oxide FOB prices fell by $5/kg. Praseodymium oxide FOB, dysprosium oxide FOB, Pr-Nd oxide (FOB China), Pr-Nd alloy (FOB China), praseodymium metal FOB, and neodymium metal FOB prices held steady.

Currently, rare earth market prices are showing an overall pattern of divergent adjustments, with Pr-Nd products recovering modestly and medium-heavy rare earth trends diverging. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices stopped falling and stabilized with a modest recovery. Suppliers tentatively raised offer prices, and low-priced cargoes in the market tightened. On the metal side, offers were raised modestly in line with raw material costs, but downstream magnetic material enterprises remained cautious in procurement, showing limited acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Actual transactions failed to gain sufficient traction, and metal enterprises, facing losses, had limited willingness to cut prices. Buyers and sellers remained in a stalemate, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

In the medium-heavy rare earth market, dysprosium products extended declines, with dysprosium oxide and dysprosium-iron alloy offers moving lower in tandem, mainly due to sluggish downstream inquiries and resistance to high-priced deals. Metal enterprises sold at reduced margins. Terbium products stabilized temporarily after consecutive pullbacks earlier, with terbium oxide and terbium metal offers both flat and the decline slowing. Gadolinium products were largely stable, holmium-iron offers were steady, and erbium oxide continued to rise amid scarce low-priced cargoes.

Overall, the rare earth market currently lacks a clear unilateral driver, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined across products. Prices and transactions continued the previous divergent trend. Although Pr-Nd products edged higher, downstream willingness to chase prices remained limited, and actual negotiations centered on low-priced cargoes, with no significant expansion in overall transaction volumes. For medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium products still faced shipment pressure and weak inquiries, while terbium prices held steady for now, with buyers and sellers turning to a wait-and-see stance. In the short term, whether Pr-Nd prices can continue to rise will depend on actual downstream order fulfillment, and prices may consolidate in a narrow range.