Rare earth prices overall in the doldrums, variety trends diverge with stagnant trading [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

Sep 10 News:

Rare earth ore:

This week, the rare earth ore market weakened in tandem with the oxide segment, with an overall mediocre trading atmosphere. Supply side, Southeast Asian ion-adsorption ore supply was in a recovery phase, and port arrivals increased compared with the previous period. The earlier tight supply situation gradually eased, correspondingly weakening support for ore prices. Among them, rare earth carbonate was quoted at 59,100-59,300 yuan/mt and pulled back during the week. As oxide prices moved lower and downstream inquiries and purchasing remained cautious, actual transactions were mainly small orders for rigid demand; monazite was quoted at 41,000-45,000 yuan/mt, with quotations unchanged throughout the week and relatively few market transactions; medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore was quoted at 247,000-248,000 yuan/mt and pulled back in tandem during the week. With tightness easing and downstream acceptance of high prices limited, transactions on the ore side progressed poorly, and follow-up in actual deals was insufficient.

Rare earth oxides:

This week, light rare earth oxides showed divergent trends, with lanthanum and cerium holding steady while Pr-Nd weakened. Lanthanum oxide was quoted at 5,200-5,800 yuan/mt and cerium oxide at 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, both remaining stable during the week, with relatively small changes on both the supply and demand sides; Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 730,000-732,000 yuan/mt, first weakening and then stabilizing during the week. From early week to Wednesday, it pulled back consecutively along with futures, and low-priced offers increased for a time. On Thursday, futures stopped falling and recovered, and suppliers tentatively raised quotations. Low-priced supply tightened somewhat compared with the previous period, but downstream willingness to chase higher prices was limited, and spot volume expansion remained constrained. Demand side, order growth was not obvious, and raw material procurement was mainly replenishment on dips.

This week, most medium-heavy rare earth oxides weakened, with only erbium oxide rising against the trend. Dysprosium oxide was quoted at 1.43-1.46 million yuan/mt and edged down during the week; high-price transactions continued to face resistance, some suppliers conceded on prices to sell, and market inquiries were mainly for rigid demand; terbium oxide was quoted at 6.68-6.73 million yuan/mt, first steady and then falling during the week. Downstream acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and the decline slowed somewhat in the latter part of the week; gadolinium oxide was quoted at 193,000-196,000 yuan/mt, with the center edging down during the week and adjusting in tandem as Pr-Nd weakened; holmium oxide was quoted at 645,000-655,000 yuan/mt, with quotations unchanged during the week and market inquiries steady; erbium oxide was quoted at 670,000-680,000 yuan/mt and was raised against the trend during the week, driven by difficulty in finding low-priced supply, making it the only product to rise during the week; yttrium oxide (5N) was quoted at 58,000-60,000 yuan/mt and yttrium oxide (3N) at 28,000-30,000 yuan/mt, both holding steady during the week. Downstream demand was mediocre, and follow-up in actual transactions was limited.

Rare earth metals:

For light rare earths, cerium metal saw no significant fluctuations in market prices this week, with suppliers’ quotations stable at 29,000-30,000 yuan/mt. Pr-Nd alloy prices edged lower overall this week. Early in the week, as Pr-Nd oxide prices continued to pull back, low-priced supply in the market increased somewhat, and alloy producers lowered their quotes accordingly. Near the weekend, Pr-Nd oxide prices stopped falling and stabilized, rebounding slightly, and alloy prices were raised modestly in line with raw material costs. As of today, supplier quotes were adjusted to 880,000-888,000 yuan/mt. However, downstream magnetic material enterprises remained cautious in inquiries and procurement, with limited acceptance of high-priced supply, and actual transactions were insufficient to follow through. Against a backdrop of losses, alloy producers had limited willingness to cut prices, leaving market trading in a stalemate.

In medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium-iron alloy closed at 1.38-1.4 million yuan/mt, with prices continuing to decline this week, mainly due to sluggish downstream inquiries and resistance to high-priced deals. Alloy producers increased shipments at lower prices, and quotes were lowered accordingly. Terbium metal prices fell first and then stabilized this week. Earlier, quotes continued to pull back under persistent resistance to high-priced deals and insufficient downstream acceptance. Later, as oxide raw material prices stabilized and cost support kicked in, the decline slowed. As of today, prices closed at 8.28-8.32 million yuan/mt, with actual market transactions still very thin. Gadolinium-iron alloy prices edged lower this week, with supplier quotes lowered to 185,000-188,000 yuan/mt. Inquiry activity was limited, and trading was mediocre. Holmium-iron alloy prices were raised slightly this week to 650,000-660,000 yuan/mt. Supported by tightening supply of low-priced oxide material, supplier quotes were firm, but downstream inquiry and procurement attitudes remained wait-and-see, and actual transactions were limited.

NdFeB blanks:

Currently, NdFeB blank N38 (Ce) closed at 212-222 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40M closed at 258-268 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40H closed at 262-272 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 45SH (Ce) closed at 312-332 yuan/kg.

In terms of prices, NdFeB prices were lowered slightly this week, mainly because lower raw material prices drove down NdFeB magnetic material prices. In terms of trading, NdFeB market transaction volumes improved somewhat this week but still fell short of expectations. On one hand, operating rates at new energy main drive motor plants recovered somewhat, which to a certain extent boosted demand for magnetic materials. However, industrial motors did not improve significantly, offsetting the gains. Combined with prices remaining high and stable, motors and end-users restocked on an as-needed basis, leaving overall market transaction volumes mediocre.

NdFeB scrap:

This week, Pr-Nd recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 755-765 yuan/kg; dysprosium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 1,230-1,250 yuan/kg; terbium recycled from NdFeB scrap closed at 5,600-5,800 yuan/kg.

This week, the scrap market overall remained stable, mainly affected by Pr-Nd oxide prices in the doldrums. At the beginning of the week, Pr-Nd oxide prices pulled back slightly, recycling enterprises kept their purchase quotes stable, scrap suppliers showed little willingness to sell at low prices, market circulation was limited, and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers remained in a stalemate. Mid-week, Pr-Nd oxide prices continued to be in the doldrums, recycling enterprises made no significant adjustments to their purchase quotes, suppliers showed low willingness to sell with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, scrap prices remained stable, and actual transactions lacked follow-through. Toward the weekend, Pr-Nd oxide prices stabilized, recycling enterprises kept their purchase quotes steady, Pr-Nd scrap prices saw no notable changes, but suppliers remained cautious about selling, and market trading activity stayed weak.