Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,677/mt, initially dipped to $14,469/mt, then drifted higher to $14,779/mt, and finally consolidated in a narrow range to close at $14,728/mt, up 1.61%. Trading volume reached 27,300 lots, and open interest stood at 267,000 lots, up 453 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 111,170 yuan/mt, hit a session low of 110,960 yuan/mt right at the open, then rose to a high of 111,710 yuan/mt, and finally consolidated at high levels to close at 111,300 yuan/mt, up 0.94%. Trading volume reached 50,000 lots, and open interest stood at 230,000 lots, up 13 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bulls adding positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News: (1) Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said on September 8 that multiple energy and utility facilities in the southern region of Saudi Arabia were attacked by Houthi forces from Yemen, causing fires at several locations and temporarily disrupting operations at some facilities. The ministry said it is working to ensure the safety of facilities and personnel and to maintain operational continuity.
(2) CCTV News, citing Iranian sources, reported that an Iranian oil tanker was hit by a US missile attack about 4 miles from Iran's Kharg Island. Local sources said the incident caused no casualties, the tanker crew is being evacuated, and relevant authorities are investigating the specifics of the incident. CCTV later cited an Iranian military warning that oil tankers at Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports would be attacked, and crews must evacuate immediately.
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On September 8, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at premiums of 90-240 yuan/mt, with an average of 165 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Looking ahead to today, the SHFE copper 2609 contract surged and broke through the 110,000 yuan/mt mark. High copper prices significantly dampened downstream procurement, and end-users overall continued to make just-in-time procurement with weak willingness to chase prices. Although procurement sentiment rebounded MoM yesterday, the main transactions were concentrated among traders, reflecting that downstream acceptance of current copper prices and spot premiums remains limited. On the other hand, available supply in the Shanghai market remained relatively tight compared with Jiangsu, with limited circulation of some brands, providing some support to the downside of spot premiums.
(2) Guangdong: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, with copper prices breaking through the 110,000 mark, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and spot trades were sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On September 8, the average warrant price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $75/mt (price range: $70-80/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $75/mt (price range: $70-80/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $55/mt (price range: $50-60/mt), with quotes referencing September-arrival cargoes. During the week, the LME September-date and October-date contracts shifted from a backwardation structure to contango. Combined with low domestic inventory, quotes for some September QP cargoes in the market moved higher. Today, due to an industry conference, most market participants are traveling to attend, and with copper prices shooting up and demand sluggish, market bids and offers were limited.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 8 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 111,170 yuan/mt, up 1,540 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 165 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index rose to 2.89, while the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.73. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,649 yuan/mt, up 1,072 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,120 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, SHFE copper, affected by overseas short squeezing, quickly broke through 110,000 yuan, with the highest price touching 111,340 yuan. Secondary copper rod sales were brisk, and many secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that upcoming orders would need to be scheduled for production. As for raw material prices, after the transfer of invoice costs, the price increase of domestic tax-exclusive copper scrap was limited, while scrap utilization enterprises were in no rush to purchase tax-inclusive raw materials due to high prices.
Prices: On the macro front, tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, with the US and Iran attacking oil tankers in succession and Saudi energy facilities being struck again by Houthi forces. Rising oil prices fueled concerns about upward inflation, but the market remained cautious and wait-and-see, awaiting this week's CPI data, which will provide key guidance for the US Fed's subsequent rate decisions. Meanwhile, the market is still trading on expectations that the US will impose additional tariffs on copper cathode. Combined with persistently low LME and SHFE inventory, this reinforced expectations of tight supply in non-US regions, jointly supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply in Shanghai remained tight with limited circulation of some brands, maintaining a tight spot supply pattern. On the demand side, end-use consumption was suppressed by the surge in copper prices, and downstream trading sentiment was sluggish. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note today.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
![Supply tightness expectations boost copper prices to a new high overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JYzFE20251217171714.jpeg)
