SMM, September 8:
In the metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.36%, and SHFE aluminum edged up 0.51%. SHFE lead fell 0.68%. SHFE zinc rose 2.37%. SHFE tin gained 0.46%, while SHFE nickel slipped 0.55%.
In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.04%, and the most-traded alumina contract dropped 0.8%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.82%. The most-traded silicon metal contract gained 1.14%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.81%.
Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 0.82%, rebar edged up 0.32%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.36%. Stainless steel fell 0.68%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.19%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.07%.
In overseas base metals, as of 11:46, LME metals were almost all higher. LME copper rose 0.72%, hitting a record high of $14,617/mt during the session. LME aluminum gained 0.2%. LME lead was flat at $1,899.5/mt. LME zinc rose 0.91%. LME tin edged up. LME nickel gained 0.27%.
In precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold edged up 0.02%, and COMEX silver rose 1.16%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold gained 0.5%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.8%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 0.89%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up 0.03%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping futures contract fell 0.37% to 1,895 points.
As of 11:46 on September 8, selected futures midday quotes:
Spot and fundamentals
Zinc: In the Ningbo market, mainstream #0 zinc traded at around 27,280-27,630 yuan/mt. Conventional brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 65 yuan/mt against the 2610 contract and at a premium of 40 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot. Mainstream quotes in Ningbo were primarily against the 2610 contract...
Macro front
Domestically:
[General Administration of Customs: Rapid growth continues; China's foreign trade rose 17.6% in the first eight months, with exports up 18.6% in August] According to customs statistics, in the first eight months of 2026, China's total goods trade reached 34.78 trillion yuan, up 17.6% YoY (the same hereinafter). Exports totaled 20.17 trillion yuan, up 14.6%, while imports reached 14.61 trillion yuan, up 22%. In August, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 4.65 trillion yuan, up 19.8%. Of this, exports were 2.73 trillion yuan, up 18.6%; imports were 1.92 trillion yuan, up 21.7%.
[PBOC reverse repo nets 4 billion yuan withdrawal today] The PBOC conducted a 1 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today. With 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the net withdrawal for the day was 4 billion yuan.
[Nine departments in Henan Province issued Several Measures on Coordinately Promoting Controlled Growth, Destocking, and Optimizing Supply to Stabilize the Real Estate Market] The Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Henan Province and eight other departments issued Several Measures on Coordinately Promoting Controlled Growth, Destocking, and Optimizing Supply to Stabilize the Real Estate Market, which proposes increasing support for housing consumption. Implement home purchase subsidies and loan interest subsidies according to local conditions. Leverage local cultural and tourism brands to carry out "real estate plus" composite sales promotions online and offline, innovate housing consumption scenarios, and meet rigid and improvement-oriented housing demand. Support diversified improvement-oriented housing demand. Optimize the method for determining the number of units: if there is no housing within the administrative area of the county (city, district) where the home is to be purchased, it may be recognized as a first home; for multi-child families that already own housing and purchase another home, one unit may be deducted when determining the number of units.
US dollar:
As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.79. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 39.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 60.4%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by October is 29.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 54.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 16.1%.
Daiwa Securities strategist Kenta Tadaide said economic fundamentals remain the key factor determining the direction of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. After US inflation data is released this week, the US Fed and Bank of Japan policy meetings will follow next week. "If US inflation accelerates and prompts the US Fed to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy stance, it may support the US dollar; while rising market expectations for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan could intensify upward pressure on the yen."
Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that the decline in the US dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves does not reflect a broad reallocation away from the US dollar, but rather the actions of a small number of reserve managers. Last year, the US dollar accounted for 56% of official currency reserves, down from 64% a decade earlier. Although this shift is often cited as evidence of widespread de-dollarization, US Fed researchers said their study shows that in two distinct periods since 2015, the number of countries increasing and decreasing their dollar holdings was roughly equal. Linda S. Goldberg and Sneha Parthasarathy wrote in a blog last week: "There is little evidence of a broad-based official trend toward diversification away from the dollar." (Jin10 Data APP)
As for other currencies:
The yen extended its recent gains against the dollar, supported by expectations of a faster pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the possibility of capital inflows into Japanese assets. During Tuesday's Asian session, the yen rose to a six-month high against the dollar, breaking through the level seen when the US and Japan jointly intervened in the currency market in late July to curb yen weakness. Investors remained wary of the possibility of further intervention after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan would continue to coordinate with the US to ensure market stability. Katayama said at a press conference on Tuesday: "We will maintain close communication with the US Treasury and work to preserve order in the foreign exchange market. Our policy stance has not changed at all since the joint currency intervention with the US." Christopher Wong, FX strategist at OCBC Research, said: "The market is now almost fully pricing in a 25bp rate hike at next week's BoJ meeting. Remarks by Takaichi Sanae's economic adviser also drove the shift in rate expectations, with further tightening expected after the September hike." (Jin10 Data APP)
On the data front:
Today will see the release of US August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US August New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Japan July trade balance, Germany July seasonally adjusted trade balance, and France July trade balance, among other data.
On the crude oil front:
As of 11:46, oil prices rose in both markets, with WTI up 1.65% and Brent up 0.63%. Concerns over the risk of prolonged geopolitical conflict intensified, and worries about supply disruptions continued to support oil prices.
According to the Financial Times, Saudi Aramco's Jizan oil facility was attacked, just one month after the last standalone attack caused a temporary halt to part of its refinery capacity. According to two people familiar with the matter, the company's oil infrastructure was attacked on Monday and damage is currently being assessed.
Earlier this week, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed, and Iran on Monday threatened to retaliate against any new US strikes. Kpler data on Tuesday showed that seven commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared with eight the previous day. Iran previously warned that energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, including US oil and natural gas-related assets, is in a vulnerable state. However, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has increased. Kpler data showed that 29 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Monday, up from 17 the previous day. Some vessels may have transited both straits with transponders turned off, but this was not included in the statistics. (Jin10 Data APP)
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts by $5 each, citing expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions will extend into 2027—though the magnitude of the increase was relatively restrained given stronger-than-expected market adaptability and the continued recovery of Middle East supply. According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, in its latest research report released on September 7, Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent/WTI price forecasts to $85/$80 per barrel, and its full-year 2027 forecasts to $80/$75 per barrel. The report noted that oil and shipping markets are increasingly pricing in a prolonged Middle East conflict: Brent spot futures have risen to $97, and the market-implied probability of Brent exceeding $100 by March 2027 has risen from about 6% a month ago to about 25%. (Wallstreetcn)
Spot Market Overview:
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
![The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidates on a strong note, with limited release of downstream peak-season demand [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TMpAM20251217171753.jpg)
