SMM September 7 News:
In August 2026, the copper price center shifted significantly higher, and the price spread between primary metal and scrap widened accordingly. Under the traditional transmission logic, a widening primary-scrap price spread would drive copper scrap to flow intensively into the smelting sector, thereby boosting supply of secondary blister copper and anode plates. In reality, however, the transmission chain was clearly obstructed. Strict enforcement of invoice regulation in China persisted, and the divergence between tax-inclusive and tax-exclusive materials continued: tax-exclusive cargoes struggled to enter the regulated smelting system smoothly, while tax-inclusive cargoes were relatively tight. Effective supply of copper scrap was constrained, and domestic copper anode supply growth was limited.
Customs data showed that in July 2026, China imported 76,600 mt of copper anode (HS code: 74020000), up 4.83% MoM but down 9.07% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-July reached 481,500 mt, up 3.97% YoY. Over the same period, imports of copper ingot (red/purple copper ingot, HS code: 74031900) totaled 34,500 mt, down 29% MoM and down 6% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-July reached 304,600 mt, up 16% YoY. Although copper anode imports provided some replenishment during the year, the incremental supply was actually limited.
While the supply side was constrained, pressure on the demand side emerged simultaneously. Smelters stockpiled in advance for concentrated maintenance in Q4, with raw material purchase willingness clearly front-loaded. Marginal procurement demand was amplified, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance in the copper anode market.
With both supply and demand tightening in the same direction, processing fees continued to decline. SMM monthly data showed that in August 2026, the average blister copper RC in south China was 750 yuan/mt, and 700 yuan/mt in north China, both hitting their lowest levels of the year, directly reflecting the tightness of the spot market.
On the supply side, SMM expects the constraining factors to persist in September: invoice regulation remains strict. The invoice regulatory environment in China is expected to remain stringent in September, with invoice issues still the biggest obstacle to secondary copper anode supply. Import ratios are unfavorable, and port congestion is delaying arrivals. The futures-spot structure was poor in August, and import profit margins were significantly inverted. In addition, persistent congestion at Chinese ports in late August due to typhoon weather may cause some delays in arrivals of imported copper scrap and copper anode.
On the demand side, supporting factors are equally solid: spot copper concentrate TCs continued to hit new lows, smelter losses widened, and reliance on alternative raw materials such as blister copper and copper anode increased. Moreover, with the concentrated maintenance period for smelters approaching in Q4, market stockpiling demand remains high, and the procurement pace is unlikely to slow significantly.
Overall, supply-side constraints are unlikely to be lifted in the short term, while demand-side stockpiling procurement is relatively rigid. The short-term supply-demand pattern in the blister copper market is unlikely to reverse. SMM expects the blister copper market to remain tight in September 2026, with the supply-demand imbalance persisting and limited upside room for RCs.
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