Weak downstream orders keep Shanghai spot copper premiums under pressure [SMM SHFE copper spot]

SMM, September 7:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at premiums of 150-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 225 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract initially declined before rebounding, then pulled back again near midday. After the morning open, prices quickly dipped from around 109,800 yuan/mt to near 109,600 yuan/mt, then rapidly rebounded and consolidated in the 109,650-109,780 yuan/mt range. Near midday, prices weakened again, briefly pulling back to 109,580 yuan/mt, and ultimately settled near 109,630 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between adjacent months stood at 440-530 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract ranged from a loss of 770 yuan/mt to a loss of 690 yuan/mt.

During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.21, down 0.15 MoM, and the purchase sentiment was 2.69, down 0.74 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 200-230 yuan/mt, then slightly lowered quotes to premiums of 180-230 yuan/mt, with non-registered copper quoted at premiums of 100-130 yuan/mt. In the second session, suppliers continued to lower quotes, with Tiefeng and Zhongjin quoted at premiums of 130-140 yuan/mt, non-registered copper at premiums of 60-90 yuan/mt, and high-quality Guixi copper traded at a premium of 280 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, downstream orders remain weak, and end-user purchase willingness is low. During the day, purchase sentiment in Shanghai pulled back notably, with the market still dominated by rigid demand purchases. Suppliers lowered quotes consecutively to facilitate transactions, with the trading center for standard-quality copper gradually shifting from above a premium of 200 yuan/mt in early trading to around 130-140 yuan/mt, reflecting limited downstream acceptance of current copper prices and spot premiums. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between adjacent months remains at a relatively high level of 440-530 yuan/mt, and suppliers still face pressure from position rollover and shipments, which may continue to weigh on spot premiums. Overall, given weak downstream demand, insufficient purchase willingness, and suppliers lowering prices to sell, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to face slight downward pressure tomorrow. However, as the premium center continues to pull back, some low-priced cargoes may gradually attract rigid demand, and further downside room is expected to be relatively limited.