SMM News, September 7:
Metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper was flat at 109,110 yuan/mt, and SHFE aluminum edged up 0.06%. SHFE lead rose 0.74%. SHFE zinc gained 0.97%. SHFE tin and SHFE nickel both edged down, with declines within 0.1%.
In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.06%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.69%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract dropped 4.04%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 1.36%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract declined 0.98%.
Ferrous metals were mostly in the red. Iron ore rose 1.45%, rebar fell 0.32%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.41%. Stainless steel rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.23%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.81%.
Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.06%, and LME aluminum fell 0.15%. LME lead rose 0.37%. LME zinc gained 0.2%. LME tin rose 0.09%. LME nickel fell 0.33%.
Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.51% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.61%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.31%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 2.37% to 1,900.5 points.
As of 11:43 on September 7, midday moves in selected futures:
Spot and fundamentals
Copper: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 109,955 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 109,855 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: after the weekend, Guangdong inventory finally increased, with higher arrivals as the main reason…
Macro front
China:
[PBOC conducted a net withdrawal of 4.5 billion yuan via reverse repos today] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations and 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations today. As 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repos matured today, it resulted in a net withdrawal of 4.5 billion yuan on the day. (Jinshi Data APP)
[Chengdu: the number of national- and provincial-level “specialized, refined, distinctive and innovative” enterprises to rise significantly by 2028] The “Implementation Opinions of the General Office of the CPC Chengdu Municipal Committee and the General Office of the Chengdu Municipal People’s Government on Optimizing the Sci-Tech Innovation Ecosystem” was released. The development goals are to persist in advancing sci-tech innovation and the transformation of sci-tech achievements in parallel; focus on key links including entity cultivation, platform empowerment, achievement transformation, and factor support; strengthen organized innovation; carry out systematic matchmaking; promote effective transformation; build an innovation ecosystem featuring “active entities, sound platforms, smooth transformation, concentrated factors, and inclusive institutions”; and form a development pattern in which sci-tech innovation leads industrial innovation. By 2028, the number of national- and provincial-level “specialized, refined, distinctive and innovative” enterprises will rise significantly; the intensity of R&D expenditure across society will reach 4.3%; and the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people will reach 30. (Chengdu Release)
US dollar:
As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 99.19. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September was 41.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 58.3%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October was 30.1%; the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 53.7%; and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike was 16.1%.
A CITIC Securities research report said that US non-farm payrolls data for August 2026 came in well above expectations, with notable contributions from leisure and hospitality as well as healthcare, and a rebound in local government education jobs. In the private sector breakdown, employment in goods-producing industries increased for a sixth consecutive month, which may reflect demand from US data center construction. Declines in employment in the financial and information technology sectors reflected the impact of AI. The unemployment rate in August held at 4.1% (4.14% to two decimal places). The labor force participation rate rebounded from 61.4% to 61.6%, while the continued decline in the participation rate for ages 45-54 still needs to be monitored. Strong August non-farm payrolls data and dovish remarks by US Fed Governor Waller offset each other, and the market again priced in a roughly 60% probability of a rate hike in September. The next key focus is the August CPI to be released on September 11.
Data:
Today will see the release of Germany’s July seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK’s August Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, Switzerland’s August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the eurozone’s September Sentix investor confidence index, the eurozone’s Q2 final GDP y/y, the eurozone’s Q2 final seasonally adjusted employment q/q, and China’s August foreign exchange reserves, among other data.
It should be noted that on Monday, September 7, the US NYSE will be closed for one day for Labor Day, and Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange will be closed for one day for Labor Day. Trading in precious metals and US crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 8th due to Labor Day; trading in stock index futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 8th; and trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 8th.
Crude oil:
As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.64% and Brent up 0.57%. Ongoing US-Iran tensions heightened market concerns over supply disruptions.
Goldman Sachs said that if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase, oil prices could rebound to $120 per barrel, and it recommended that investors seek returns by going long natural gas and diesel. Goldman Sachs’ Co-Head of Global Commodities Research, Struyven, said: “Events over the past few days do indicate that the risk of shipping disruptions expanding and intensifying cannot be ignored.” Struyven added that, in addition to the upside scenario of $120 per barrel, Goldman Sachs also set a downside target of $80 per barrel if exports in the region return to normal. “While we see significant upside room for crude oil prices, we do recommend that investors hedge geopolitical risks by going long European natural gas and refined products. Supply shocks in these markets are larger than in the crude oil market.” (Jinshi Data APP)
Spot market highlights:
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Other metals spot midday commentary will be updated later; please refresh to view~
![Weak downstream orders keep Shanghai spot copper premiums under pressure [SMM SHFE copper spot]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/aMTzL20251217171710.jpg)
![Macro expectations fluctuate amid a supply-demand stalemate, the most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidates around 416,000 [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/tyydv20251217171753.jpg)
![Arrivals increase, spot premiums decline; overall trading improves [SMM South China spot copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/EOMNB20251217171709.jpg)
