[SMM Steel] Indian HRC Export Discussions Remain Stable

Global long steel prices are expected to remain under upward pressure over the next quarter despite subdued consumption, the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (IREPAS) said in its September short-range outlook. The association attributed the anticipated price support mainly to higher energy and logistics costs, geopolitical disruptions and increasingly restrictive trade measures rather than any significant recovery in underlying steel demand. Global crude steel production moved from growth of 1.7% year on year in June to a decline of 0.3% in July, while China’s output shifted from 0.4% growth to a 3.6% contraction. However, global production during January–July was down by only 0.6%, which IREPAS said was insufficient to indicate a meaningful market rebalancing. Chinese steel bar exports increased by 20.9% year on year in July and by 12.3% during January–July. IREPAS said tighter EU and UK import quotas were improving supply-demand conditions within those protected markets but redirecting surplus material towards markets with fewer trade restrictions. European long steel prices were being pushed higher primarily by energy and transportation costs, with demand remaining weak. India, Southeast Asia, Africa and selected US construction segments were identified as the stronger opportunities for long steel products. Meanwhile, the global ferrous scrap market remained weak as mills resisted raw-material price increases that could further compress margins.

[GCC] The UAE’s monthly rebar assessment fell by 4 USD/tonne to 783 USD/tonne EXW in September. Weak demand and buyer resistance prompted some mills to reduce offers to around 773-780 USD/tonne EXW. In Saudi Arabia, Hadeed maintained its 12-32 mm rebar offer at 747 USD/tonne CPT Riyadh, while raising its 5.5-6.5 mm wire rod offer by around 33 USD/tonne to 807 USD/tonne.

India’s domestic steel market remained mixed during the week (Aug 31-Sep 4), with prices showing both upward and downward movements across semi-finished and finished steel. Overall, buyer activity remained cautious and need-based with demand staying moderate. Mandi Gobindgarh billet up by 1.05USD/tonne (100INR/tonne) to 492.14USD/tonne (46,500INR/tonne) delivered Mandi. Raipur billet down by 9.52USD/tonne (900INR/tonne) to 444.52USD/tonne (42,000INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Rebar prices moved up by 5.29USD/tonne (500INR/tonne) to 530.24USD/tonne (50,100INR/tonne) EXW Mumbai. Durgapur rebar down by 10.58USD/tonne (1,000INR/tonne) to 478.38USD/tonne (45,200INR/tonne) EXW Durgapur. Mandi Ingot rose by 1.05USD/tonne (100INR/tonne) to 492.17USD/tonne (46,500INR/tonne) EXW Mandi. PDRI sponge iron prices up by 6.35USD/tonne (600INR/tonne) to 315.41USD/tonne (29,800INR/tonne) EXW Bellary. PDRI sponge iron prices down by 5.29USD/tonne (500INR/tonne) to 309.06USD/tonne (29,200INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Melting scrap prices increased by 6.35USD/tonne (600INR/tonne) to 388.43USD/tonne (36,700INR/tonne) ex-yard Alang. 8Ani (12mm) unchanged at 445USD/tonne (42,100INR/tonne) ex-yard Alang. HMS 1&2 (80:20) rose by 1.05USD/tonne (100INR/tonne) to 401.13USD/tonne (37,900INR/tonne) delivered Mandi.