[SMM India Domestic Market Weekly Review] Domestic Steel Market Remains Mixed Amid Cautious Buying

Global long steel prices are expected to remain under upward pressure over the next quarter despite subdued consumption, the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (IREPAS) said in its September short-range outlook. The association attributed the anticipated price support mainly to higher energy and logistics costs, geopolitical disruptions and increasingly restrictive trade measures rather than any significant recovery in underlying steel demand. Global crude steel production moved from growth of 1.7% year on year in June to a decline of 0.3% in July, while China’s output shifted from 0.4% growth to a 3.6% contraction. However, global production during January–July was down by only 0.6%, which IREPAS said was insufficient to indicate a meaningful market rebalancing. Chinese steel bar exports increased by 20.9% year on year in July and by 12.3% during January–July. IREPAS said tighter EU and UK import quotas were improving supply-demand conditions within those protected markets but redirecting surplus material towards markets with fewer trade restrictions. European long steel prices were being pushed higher primarily by energy and transportation costs, with demand remaining weak. India, Southeast Asia, Africa and selected US construction segments were identified as the stronger opportunities for long steel products. Meanwhile, the global ferrous scrap market remained weak as mills resisted raw-material price increases that could further compress margins.

[GCC] The UAE’s monthly rebar assessment fell by 4 USD/tonne to 783 USD/tonne EXW in September. Weak demand and buyer resistance prompted some mills to reduce offers to around 773-780 USD/tonne EXW. In Saudi Arabia, Hadeed maintained its 12-32 mm rebar offer at 747 USD/tonne CPT Riyadh, while raising its 5.5-6.5 mm wire rod offer by around 33 USD/tonne to 807 USD/tonne.

The Malaysian steel market remained cautious this week, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing on an as-needed basis. For flat steel, offers for locally produced S275JR HRC rose by MYR 20/tonne week on week to around MYR 2,150/tonne ($528/tonne) EXW. No significant price adjustments were reported in the CRC market, with previous offers for SPCC CRC remaining at around MYR 2,750/tonne. For long steel, mainstream transaction prices for B500B rebar held at approximately MYR 2,120/tonne delivered, while some mills continued to offer at the higher level of around MYR 2,200/tonne. C12D wire rod was assessed at approximately MYR 2,250/tonne delivered. Overall demand remained weak, with trading activity progressing slowly. HRC prices continued to recover slightly, while the rebar and wire rod markets remained broadly stable.