[SMM Iran Weekly Review] Rial's 15% 2 Week Depreciation Triggers Sell-Off; Iranian Export Prices Slide Across the Board

Published: Sep 4, 2026 15:52

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The primary driver in the Middle East market shifted this week from geopolitical disruptions to Iran's currency crisis. The rial depreciated by nearly 15% against the US dollar over two weeks, prompting steel mills to accelerate shipments and lock in foreign exchange, leading to a downward shift in export quotes across the board: slabs declined to 420 USD/tonne FOB, while billets slid to 410–415 USD/tonne FOB. Specifically, a lot of about 10,000 tonnes of billet was transacted at 413 USD/tonne FOB, and dense tenders from multiple electric arc furnace (EAF) mills intensified supply competition; a deal to Oman was recorded at 440 USD/tonne CFR, though vessels remain congested and delayed at port. On the domestic front, currency depreciation drove a general price surge—domestic HRC prices rose to approximately 537–589 USD/tonne EXW, and rebar and pipe prices followed with about 9% gains; however, this was driven purely by replacement costs, with end-users engaging only in hand-to-mouth procurement, while imported HRC previously purchased at 560 USD/tonne FOB remained undeliverable due to Caspian Sea shipping blockages. Iranian rebar exports to Iraq were transacted at only around 550 USD/tonne delivered amid weak demand. Looking ahead to next week, if the rial continues to depreciate, it will force Iranian resources to further cut prices for volume, putting downward pressure on regional semi-finished products and maintaining a generally soft operational posture.

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