[SMM Steel]

The primary driver in the Middle East market shifted this week from geopolitical disruptions to Iran's currency crisis. The rial depreciated by nearly 15% against the US dollar over two weeks, prompting steel mills to accelerate shipments and lock in foreign exchange, leading to a downward shift in export quotes across the board: slabs declined to 420 USD/tonne FOB, while billets slid to 410–415 USD/tonne FOB. Specifically, a lot of about 10,000 tonnes of billet was transacted at 413 USD/tonne FOB, and dense tenders from multiple electric arc furnace (EAF) mills intensified supply competition; a deal to Oman was recorded at 440 USD/tonne CFR, though vessels remain congested and delayed at port. On the domestic front, currency depreciation drove a general price surge—domestic HRC prices rose to approximately 537–589 USD/tonne EXW, and rebar and pipe prices followed with about 9% gains; however, this was driven purely by replacement costs, with end-users engaging only in hand-to-mouth procurement, while imported HRC previously purchased at 560 USD/tonne FOB remained undeliverable due to Caspian Sea shipping blockages. Iranian rebar exports to Iraq were transacted at only around 550 USD/tonne delivered amid weak demand. Looking ahead to next week, if the rial continues to depreciate, it will force Iranian resources to further cut prices for volume, putting downward pressure on regional semi-finished products and maintaining a generally soft operational posture.

Türkiye's long steel market maintained its upward momentum this week, with domestic rebar prices rising to 605 USD/tonne EXW (excl. VAT). Major Marmara mills each raised prices by 5 USD/tonne to 620–625 USD/tonne EXW, while Izmir quoted at 600 USD/tonne EXW, Iskenderun at 599–602 USD/tonne EXW, and domestic wire rod at 620–630 USD/tonne EXW. The export market rallied with simultaneous volume and price increases: rebar export quotes rose to 594 USD/tonne FOB, wire rod was quoted at 599 USD/tonne FOB, and Izmir's wire rod offers reached 620 USD/tonne FOB. July export customs data further corroborated the robust boom in long products, showing a 6.9% year-on-year increase in rebar exports and a massive 64% surge in wire rod. Flat steel products followed with moderate gains: domestic HRC edged up to 587.50 USD/tonne EXW, export offers rose by 5 USD/tonne to 585 USD/tonne FOB, and mills leveraged the new EU policies to issue probing offers of 565–580 EUR/tonne CFR (excluding anti-dumping duties) to Europe, while imported Chinese HRC was referenced at 540–545 USD/tonne CFR. On the semi-finished front, driven by Black Sea supply disruptions, Türkiye accumulated over 250,000–300,000 tonnes of billet purchases from Asia (including China, India, and Malaysia). Looking ahead to next week, underpinned by low inventories and replenishing demand, long products are expected to maintain a strong posture, while HRC will track European market trends upward, with close attention paid to whether scrap prices can provide relay support.

According to China Trade Remedies Information, on September 3, Mexico's Ministry of Economy issued an announcement making a final affirmative anti-dumping determination on hot-rolled steel originating from China and Vietnam, formally imposing anti-dumping duties. Specifically, Shanghai Meishan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. is subject to $0.3087/kg, Wuhan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. to $0.3050/kg, cooperating producers/exporters not sampled to $0.3070/kg, and other Chinese producers/exporters to $0.3087/kg; Vietnamese producers/exporters are subject to $0.2719–0.2855/kg. The products involved are hot-rolled sheets and plates made of iron, carbon steel, or alloy steel, whether or not pickled, uncoated, with a thickness not exceeding 25.4 millimeters and of any width. The measures take effect on the day following the publication of the announcement.