[SMM Türkiye Weekly Review] Rebar Nears 610 USD/tonne Milestone, Longs Lead Gains and Probe High Offers to EU

The EU flat steel market officially entered the "full realization phase" ignited by the resonance of policy and supply this week. The EU's brand-new import regime and "Melt and Pour" traceability new regulations officially took effect on September 1, compounded by court-ordered slab production suspensions at Italy’s ADI and Ferriera Valsider declaring force majeure, creating a dual shock of policy tightening and supply disruptions that instantly broke market defenses. Northwest European HRC quotes surged to 738 EUR/tonne EXW (857 USD/tonne EXW) during the week, while the Italian HRC index climbed synchronously to 733 EUR/tonne EXW (852 USD/tonne EXW). Mainstream mills aggressively raised ex-works prices by 20–30 EUR/tonne; a major Northern European service center locked in 500 tonnes of actual orders (October shipment) at 760 EUR/tonne DDP (883 USD/tonne). On the import front, Italian HRC CIF import prices jumped to 669 USD/tonne CIF, imported slabs climbed to 560 USD/tonne CFR, with Chinese origins transacted at 570 USD/tonne CFR, widening internal-external price spreads further to yearly highs. The long products segment maintained isolated softness amidst general resilience—Italian domestic rebar edged down 5 EUR to 690 EUR/tonne EXW (802 USD/tonne), and forward cost uncertainties stemming from the advance implementation of CBAM began to disrupt long-term contract pricing for 2027. Looking ahead to next week, the dual push of the new regulations and supply outages remains intact; the degree to which mills can sustain high quotes and generate volume will dictate the upward slope, keeping HRC strong.

Ferrous metals mostly showed a first-up-then-down trend, yet still posted certain gains MoM overall, with coking coal and coke leading the gains and finished steel following higher. The core driver of the rally was a confluence of bullish factors: first, supply-side disruptions in coking coal dominated, as Shanxi production resumptions fell severely short of expectations and supply remained tight, with mines holding back from selling and auctions closing at high premiums, quickly materializing the cost-push logic; second, cost support moved up in steps, as the fourth coke price hike was implemented on September 3, iron ore coarse fines saw destocking for two consecutive weeks, and news of the Minas mine suspension boosted ore prices higher, while hot metal output rebounded to a daily average of 2.408 million mt, keeping demand-side support for raw materials intact. After the early-week gains, the China-Mongolia heads-of-state meeting saw an exchange of views on border port railway construction and other issues, raising market concerns that Mongolian coking coal supply may gradually recover, which stalled the rise in coking coal and coke futures and dragged other ferrous metals into a pullback. From a data perspective, as spot cargo remained weak and the follow-through rally was not strong, HRC spot prices in US dollar terms rose $10/mt MoM, sheets & plates export prices rose $5-6/mt, long steel prices rose $7-8/mt MoM, and export margins continued to narrow. Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain a cost-driven firm pattern in the short term, but risks of a retreat after rapid rise are building. Coking coal production resumptions are falling short of expectations and tight supply is hard to resolve, keeping cost support solid; after the coke price hike took effect, the tug-of-war between coke and steel intensified, with coke producers limiting production and holding back from selling amid losses while steel mills pressed for deliveries. If this continues, the cost center will keep shifting higher. Focus should be on the pace of coking coal production resumptions and marginal changes in end-user transactions. Export prices are also expected to stay high on the basis of this week's levels.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 04 Sep , 2026