PV Frame Operating Rates Steady, Expectations Weakening; Aluminum Ingot Destocking Accelerates, Aluminum Price Center Moves Up [SMM Analysis]

SMM, September 3:

PV aluminum extrusion: The PV aluminum frame sector operated steadily overall this week. Sample enterprises maintained stable operating rates, and industry leaders kept capacity at relatively high utilization levels. Among them, a frame enterprise in the Hebei region reported that it will maintain full production in September. From the downstream supporting side, PV module prices have continued to rise recently, squeezing profit margins for end-user projects and dragging down downstream purchasing and stockpiling willingness. According to an SMM survey, domestic module enterprises' scheduled production in September is expected to pull back by approximately 1.7 GW MoM from August. End-user module output is weakening marginally, and the pullback in downstream module scheduled production will gradually transmit to the auxiliary material segment, weakening demand for frame supporting products. Overall, the operating rates of PV frame enterprises are expected to consolidate on a subdued note going forward.

Raw material prices: During the period (August 31-September 3, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price stood at 24,127.5 yuan/mt, up 1.2% from the previous week's average. Overall, macro tightening expectations have been digested, and low inventory along with accelerating destocking formed a floor and dominated pricing this week. However, risks remain from insufficient peak-season demand realization and the transmission of aluminum billet inventory buildup to ingot, while overseas supply continues to recover, limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in the range of 23,800-24,700 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum at $3,230-3,360/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the September 15-16 interest rate meeting, the pace of destocking, and the strength of peak-season order realization.