Futures market breaks through, lifting the center, ADC12 quotes raised, upward momentum still awaits demand verification [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: The cast aluminum alloy 2611 contract held up well before midday today. It opened at 23,595 yuan in the morning session, dipped to a low of 23,575 yuan before consolidating higher, reaching a high of 23,695 yuan, and closed the morning at 23,690 yuan, up 285 yuan or 1.22% from yesterday's settlement price. Structurally, after the night session broke out with heavy volume and a long bullish candle, the price center rose above 23,600 yuan, and the daytime session continued to set a new stage high, forming an upward breakout pattern.

Spot: ADC12 market quotes showed a notable upward adjustment overall today, with SMM ADC12 prices up 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,300 yuan/mt. The upward pressure mainly came from stronger aluminum prices and futures, higher raw material costs, and improved market sentiment. The cost side is now providing stronger support for ADC12 prices, and against the backdrop of cost pressure and a firm market, enterprises have shown a greater willingness to repair prices upward. Meanwhile, some enterprises hold expectations for a recovery in end-use demand going forward. However, actual market feedback suggests that the improvement in demand remains limited for now, and the price increase is still driven more by costs and futures, with end-user orders not yet providing sufficient positive feedback to prices. As a result, the industry's price center may continue to repair upward in the short term, but without a clear pickup in demand, the room for actual price hikes by enterprises remains somewhat constrained. Attention should still be paid to the recovery of end-user orders and further changes in aluminum prices and raw material costs.