SMM, September 3: Overnight, the LME tin 3M contract opened at $54,555/mt, moved sideways in early trading, dipped to $53,850/mt during the session, and finally closed at $54,633/mt, down 1.07% (previous trading day 55,223). Open interest held at 20,200 lots. LME inventory decreased by 25 mt to 5,550 mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE tin 2610 contract opened at 413,840 yuan/mt, touched a high of 415,500 yuan/mt in early trading, then consolidated lower and dipped to 412,530 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally closing at 412,910 yuan/mt, down 0.70%. Trading volume was 48,100 lots, and open interest was 42,400 lots, up 485 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish positioning. On the macro front, the US military struck targets at Iran's Bandar Abbas port and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on September 1. Trump threatened "more forceful strikes" if Iran retaliated. Iran responded with missile counterattacks and accused the US of breaching the agreement. WTI crude oil surged nearly 6% on September 1, breaking above $90/barrel, while Brent crude rose to $95.085. Fed Governor Barr stated on September 1 that he would support rate hikes if inflation does not slow sufficiently. The CME "FedWatch" tool showed the probability of a September rate hike had surged to 66.9%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.798%, a 19-month high. The US dollar index strengthened to 99.83, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.14%. Geopolitical premiums combined with hawkish signals, and a strong US dollar pressured metals prices, with tin prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, supply-side production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels. Water accumulation issues in mine shafts persist as the rainy season draws to a close, limiting growth in tin concentrate imports. Indonesia's refined tin export quota controls continue, and the tight raw material supply situation outside China remains unchanged. LME inventory at 5,550 mt has fallen to a near three-year low. SHFE inventory on August 28 was 6,381 mt, a slight accumulation, with port arrivals partially offsetting ore supply tightness. On the demand side, the traditional consumption off-season continues, with downstream users making just-in-time procurement only. High-end solder demand for AI servers, HBM, and advanced packaging remains resilient. Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate on a subdued note today, with support at the 410,000 yuan/mt level to watch.
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