【India's Coal-Fired Power Output Up 11.3% in August; Monsoon Disruptions Cause Low Coal Stocks at 46 Plants】

Today, the most-traded HRC contract rose first then fell, closing at 3,365, down 0.74% WoW. HRC spot prices edged down 10-20 yuan/mt, while CRC prices remained stable. Supply side, this week's HRC impact from maintenance was 95,100 mt, down 151,500 mt WoW. Next week's HRC impact from maintenance is expected at 51,900 mt, down 43,200 mt WoW, with overall supply growth relatively small. Demand side, during the seasonal transition, end-use demand has yet to show a significant increase. Futures prices fell too quickly, leaving end-users with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Cost side, the fourth round of coke price hikes is still brewing, but futures rose too fast, prompting some capital to take profits. After shooting up in early trading, prices plunged, weakening cost support. Overall, short-term HRC prices continue to follow cost-side trends. Close attention should be paid to actual supply conditions for coking coal and coke, as well as steel mills' acceptance of coke price hikes. The most-traded HRC contract is likely to remain volatile in the near term.

Russian coal exports to India declined 2% year on year to 14.5 Mt in the first half of 2026, a reduction of 0.3 Mt. India’s total coal imports fell by a sharper 9.4% to 118.9 Mt, down 12.4 Mt. Because Russian volumes declined more slowly than the overall Indian import market, Russia’s share increased by 0.9 percentage points to 12.2%. Performance among major suppliers was mixed. Indonesian shipments to India fell 17.4% to 42.8 Mt, South African volumes declined 14.1% to 16.4 Mt, and Australian shipments edged down 0.6% to 16.7 Mt. US deliveries, meanwhile, increased 9.1% to 13.2 Mt. The figures indicate that India’s overall import demand contracted, while Russian coal relatively maintained its position within the smaller market.

Global coal prices continued to strengthen through the end of August. European thermal coal quotations rose to USD 133/t, while TTF gas prices increased 6.3% week on week to USD 821.96/1,000 m³. South African 6,000 high-CV coal rose above USD 116/t. A derailment on August 21 closed both rail lines to Richards Bay Coal Terminal, and although Transnet partially resumed traffic on August 25, reduced inbound deliveries and higher exports pushed terminal stocks down by nearly 10% to 3.83 Mt. Pakistan imported 287,000 tonnes of South African coal during the week, exceeding India’s 154,000 tonnes, with its gas shortage potentially supporting continued demand. Indonesian 5,900 GAR and 4,200 GAR prices rose to USD 105.5/t and USD 66.5/t, respectively. Falling water levels on the Barito River prompted some producers to declare force majeure, while delays in RKAB production-quota approvals added to constraints on moving coal from mines to export terminals. Market participants reported September-loading 4,200 GAR cargoes trading at USD 70–71/t FOB Kalimantan, above quoted market levels and indicating that buyers were willing to pay a premium to secure prompt supply. Australian 6,000 high-CV thermal coal climbed above USD 137/t, supported by higher LNG prices, hot weather in Northeast Asia and uncertainty over Indonesian supply. Australia’s hard coking coal index rose to USD 265/t amid Chinese safety inspections and slower Mongolian shipments. Russian PCI coal prices also strengthened due to Chinese demand, limited availability and higher freight costs.