[US Fed September rate hike probability rises to 66.9%, macro pressure keeps SHFE tin most-traded contract center weak [SMM Tin Midday Review]]

Tin Midday Commentary, Sep 2, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at yuan 411,200-416,000/mt, with an average price of yuan 413,600/mt, down yuan 11,000/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract was weak, with the intraday low at yuan 410,370/mt before stabilizing. It closed the morning at yuan 414,110/mt, down yuan 9,290/mt or 2.19% from the previous settlement price.

On the LME, LME 3M tin also weakened, closing at $54,225/mt, down 0.5%.

2. Spot Market

Spot trading was notably more active than earlier. After futures pulled back to around the yuan 410,000/mt level, downstream enterprises began receiving some orders and started purchasing. Some traders reported that morning orders totaled about one truckload, and downstream buying sentiment improved from earlier. The market is transitioning from the off-season to the traditional September-October peak season, with end-use orders mostly released as small-batch, spot orders placed only when prices are deemed suitable. Demand drivers remain unclear.

4. Comprehensive Outlook

In the short term, tin prices are expected to move sideways within a range with resistance above and support below. On the upside, prices are capped by US Fed tightening expectations, global bond market sell-offs, and weak end-use demand. On the downside, support comes from supply disruptions in Myanmar/Indonesia, no significant accumulation in China's social inventory, and rigid demand near yuan 400,000-410,000/mt. The most-traded SHFE tin contract dipped to yuan 410,370/mt today, approaching the key support at the yuan 410,000/mt level. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether this level holds. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the yuan 410,000-425,000/mt range this week. A directional breakout will likely require the release of US August CPI data on Sep 11 and the US Fed meeting on Sep 15-16, as well as a substantial increase in peak-season end-use orders.