SMM, September 2: Overnight, LME tin opened near $54,400/mt, swung wildly in early trading with the price center holding steady overall, and ultimately closed at $54,500/mt, up 0.01%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened around 416,570 yuan/mt, with the price center consolidating lower in early trading, and ultimately closed down 1.61%, among the biggest decliners in SHFE base metals, driven by long liquidation. On the macro front, escalating US-Iran tensions pushed crude oil sharply higher, with WTI crude surging nearly 6% to break above $90/bbl and Brent crude up more than 5%. US Fed's Barkin hinted at decisive rate hikes if inflation fails to cool, and rising rate hike expectations lifted the US dollar index to near a two-week high. With geopolitical risks and hawkish signals intertwined, precious metals plunged under risk-off sentiment, base metals saw overseas market outperform domestic market, and tin prices came under notable pressure on SHFE.
On the fundamentals side, on the supply front, Myanmar's Wa State remains in the tail end of the rainy season, with mining and logistics still constrained, making it difficult for tin concentrate imports to increase significantly. Indonesia's refined tin export controls remain in place, with full-year quotas at low levels, leaving the overseas raw material supply tightness pattern unchanged. Domestic refined tin smelting operations are stable, profits from smelting externally purchased ore are under pressure, and secondary tin output growth is limited by scrap supply constraints, though tin ingot arrivals at ports have partially offset ore supply tightness. On the demand side, the tin industry is currently in its traditional consumption off-season, and with tin prices fluctuating at highs, downstream enterprises are strictly purchasing as needed, market transaction pace has slowed, and domestic upstream inventories have accumulated slightly. However, global tin concentrate supply remains in long-term deficit, exchange inventories are at near three-year lows, providing bottom support for tin prices. Demand for tin in emerging sectors such as AI servers, GPUs, and HBM continues to be released, further intensifying the tight balance in the tin industry.
Overall, hawkish macro expectations and US dollar strength are putting short-term pressure on tin prices, but ore supply tightness and low inventories limit downside room. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a wild swings pattern today, with a trading range of 415,000–425,000 yuan/mt. Attention is suggested on downstream restocking pace at low prices and production resumption progress in Wa State.
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![SHFE tin fell 1.61% overnight, giving back the previous day's gains; 415,000 becomes key support [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/tyydv20251217171753.jpg)
