SMM September 2 news:
In the metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.52%, and SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 1.78%. SHFE tin fell 2.19%. SHFE nickel fell 0.84%.
In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract edged down, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.27%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 3.29%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 1.25%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract edged up.
Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.32%, rebar fell 0.91%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.29%. Stainless steel fell 0.51%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.47%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.75%.
In overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell across the board. LME zinc fell 1.11%. LME copper fell 0.56%, and LME aluminum fell 0.32%. LME lead fell 0.26%. LME tin fell 0.5%. LME nickel fell 0.3%.
In precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 1.31%, and COMEX silver fell 1.86%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 3.04%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.34%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 4.2%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 5.85%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping futures contract rose 5.52% to 1,932 points.
As of 11:41 on September 2, some futures midday quotes:
Spot and fundamentals
Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,665 yuan/mt, down 1,595 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,555 yuan/mt, down 1,595 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 12 consecutive trading days and has now fallen to less than 10,000 mt...
Macro front
Domestic:
[PBOC reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 598.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC did not conduct reverse repo operations today. With 239.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 359 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing today, a net withdrawal of 598.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data APP)
[Coke options officially listed for trading today] Today (the 2nd), coke options were officially listed for trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Coke is an indispensable core basic raw material for steel smelting and the coal chemical industry. After the listing of coke options, they will form a coordinated toolkit with coke futures, coking coal futures and options, and iron ore futures and options, building a more comprehensive risk management instrument system covering steel raw materials and better meeting the refined and combined price hedging needs of enterprises along the industry chain. (CCTV News)
US dollar:
As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.78. Oil prices rose, and the market bet that the US Fed may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation, supporting the US dollar. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged by September is 33.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 66.9%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged by October is 22.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 56.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 21.5%.
US Fed Governor Michael Barr said that if inflation fails to pull back, the US Fed should be prepared to raise rates. He warned that inflation has exceeded the target for more than five years, and there is a risk that price pressures have become entrenched. Barr said that if upcoming data shows inflation is cooling, policymakers can remain patient. In a speech prepared for an event in Washington on Tuesday, Barr said: "If the data trend gives me confidence that inflation is moderating toward the 2% target, then I think we can take some more time to assess the policy stance. But if inflation does not appear to be cooling by enough, then I think we should act decisively and raise rates." (Jin10 Data APP)
Other currencies:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unanimously decided to raise the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%. The RBNZ said that inflation rose to 4.1% in the June quarter due to higher fuel prices caused by the Middle East conflict. Core inflation, expected wage growth, and inflation expectations remain in line with inflation returning to the 1% to 3% target range by mid-2027 and to the 2% target midpoint later next year. The New Zealand economy likely resumed recovery after weak growth in the June quarter, but the recovery remains uneven. The economic recovery is expected to strengthen further and broaden. The global economy faces significant risks that could affect commodity prices and export demand. The strength of New Zealand's economic recovery could be stronger or weaker than expected, and price pressures could also cause inflation to persist longer than expected. The committee will remain vigilant and act as necessary to ensure inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target midpoint over the medium term. The committee believes that gradually withdrawing monetary policy stimulus is conducive to bringing inflation back to the 2% target midpoint while supporting economic growth and employment. This decision reduces the risk of the need for further significant rate hikes in the future. Future policy decisions will depend on the committee's judgment of the balance of medium-term inflation risks. (Jin10 Data APP)
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he will consider price rise risks when deciding monetary policy, a statement that may further fuel market speculation of a rate hike at the BOJ's policy meeting later this month. Speaking after the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, Ueda said the BOJ will fully discuss monetary policy at its next meeting, as it does at every meeting. Ueda declined to comment on the market's strong expectations for a September rate hike. But he said recent economic data is in line with the BOJ's previous outlook. This key phrasing suggests the BOJ is on track to raise rates further. The BOJ has previously said that future policy discussions will focus on price rise risks. Ueda's remarks came as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week further called on the BOJ to take appropriate policy action, further reinforcing market expectations that the BOJ is about to raise rates. Overnight index swaps show the market sees a roughly 99% probability of a BOJ rate hike in September. (Jin10 Data APP)
Data:
Today will see the release of Australia's Q2 GDP annual rate, New Zealand's RBNZ interest rate decision as of September 2, US August ADP employment change, Canada's central bank interest rate decision as of September 2, US July factory orders monthly rate, and other data. In addition, watch for: the RBNZ's rate decision and monetary policy statement; the Bank of Canada's rate decision; and the Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers' monetary policy press conference.
Crude oil:
As of 11:41, oil prices rose in both markets, with WTI crude up 0.54% and Brent crude up 0.82%. Concerns over supply disruptions triggered by the escalating Middle East conflict supported oil prices.
Preliminary shipping data showed that four commodity carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from 10 the previous day and below the daily average of about 13 over the past 10 days. Preliminary data released by vessel tracking agency Kpler on Wednesday showed that the four vessels passing through the strait included one very large crude carrier, one Panamax tanker, one Kamsarmax bulk carrier, and one medium-range tanker. Of the four vessels, one was entering the Strait of Hormuz and three were exiting. The data may still change as some vessels typically turn off their transponders during transit. Meanwhile, 18 commodity carriers passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another key maritime chokepoint in the Middle East, on Tuesday, with seven entering and 11 exiting. By comparison, the daily average number of vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait over the past 10 days was about 24. The vessels passing through the strait included two Aframax tankers and one Suezmax tanker.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a fireside chat at the G20 meeting that the "3-3-3" plan for the US energy sector targets crude oil equivalent, and that US daily oil production has increased by 1.6 million to 2.2 million barrels since Trump took office. He said risks must be reduced, and that the Strait of Hormuz will achieve "bypass passage" within two years, at which point the strait will become "worthless waters," with oil transported via land pipelines rather than through the Strait of Hormuz. On Iran, he mentioned that 85%-90% of Iranian factories have reconstruction capability, and Iran may have the world's third-largest energy resources. In addition, the US may announce bank sanctions this week and next week, and has received strong support from the EU, the European Central Bank, the UK, the UAE, and Bahrain, with zero tolerance for Iran and a plan to strangle its development economically; the US will also focus on aviation leasing companies related to Iran. Bessent said: "We know about accounts in the British Virgin Islands related to Iran. Funds stolen from the Iranian people can be returned to them, and Iranian funds can also be used to help victims of terrorism." (Jin10 Data APP)
US Energy Secretary Wright said after arriving in Venezuela on Tuesday that agreements to be signed by US and other countries' oil companies in Caracas on Wednesday will drive Venezuela's crude oil production to more than double in the coming years. Venezuela's crude oil production exceeded 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s but has since fallen sharply due to underinvestment, mismanagement, and US sanctions. In recent months, the country's crude oil production has been around 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels per day. Wright said the investments involved in these agreements will "significantly increase" the oil production available for supply and exert downward pressure on oil prices. He also noted that the biggest bottleneck currently facing gasoline and diesel prices is refining capacity. Wright also said that thanks to the Trump administration's measures to ease refinery regulations, US gasoline prices are expected to fall in the coming weeks. (Jin10 Data APP)
Spot market overview:
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Midday reviews of other metals spot markets will be updated later. Please refresh to view~
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