SMM, September 22:
In the metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.46%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.14%. SHFE lead edged up 0.18%. SHFE zinc dipped 0.09%. SHFE tin rose 0.83%, and SHFE nickel gained 0.7%.
In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.7%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.29%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 2.61%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up 0.3%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 2.78%.
Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.14%, rebar gained 0.48%, and hot-rolled coil edged up 0.15%. Stainless steel rose 0.47%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 1.22%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.68%.
In overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper gained 0.47%, and LME aluminum rose 0.34%. LME lead and LME tin edged lower. LME zinc and LME nickel edged up.
In precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold dipped 0.01%, while COMEX silver rose 0.29%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.44%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 0.46%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.73%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 0.69%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping futures contract fell 0.81% to 2,150 points.
As of 11:45 on September 22, selected futures midday quotes:
Spot and Fundamentals
Copper: Today in North China, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 980-1,120 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 1,050 yuan/mt, up 430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 112,410 yuan/mt, up 1,805 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...
Macro Front
Domestic:
[China Discovers Super-Large Copper-Gold Deposit] This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference under the theme "A Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan" series, introducing efforts to promote the safe, efficient, and sustainable use of natural resources. According to relevant officials, breakthroughs in mineral exploration have been encouraging. From January to August, China's newly added recoverable oil reserves reached nearly 70 million mt, and newly added recoverable natural gas reserves reached 610 billion m³. The Chating copper-gold deposit in Anhui and the Zhugongtang lead-zinc deposit in Guizhou each saw newly added resources reach super-large scale. (CCTV News)
[China's Power Market Trading Volume Up 19.2% YoY in January-August 2026] In August 2026, power trading institutions across China completed 754.8 billion kWh of traded electricity, up 15.2% YoY. In terms of trading scope, intra-provincial trading volume reached 563.8 billion kWh, up 16.0% YoY; inter-provincial and inter-regional trading volume reached 191 billion kWh, up 11.4% YoY. By trading product, medium and long-term trading volume was 681.9 billion kWh; spot trading volume was 72.9 billion kWh. Green electricity trading volume was 26.4 billion kWh, up 7.7% YoY. Market-based proxy power purchase by power grid enterprises reached 78.2 billion kWh. (National Energy Administration) (Jin10 Data APP)
[Vehicle exports at Khorgos Port rose 33.3% in the first eight months]Since the beginning of this year, leveraging its location and corridor advantages, vehicle export trade at Khorgos Port, the country's largest land port for commercial vehicle exports, has continued to heat up, becoming a core growth driver for Xinjiang's foreign trade in terms of quality and efficiency. According to statistics from Khorgos Customs, from January to August this year, Khorgos Port exported 344,000 vehicles, up 33.3% YoY. In addition to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, the share of passenger NEVs and commercial vehicles in exports rose significantly. (Xinhua News Agency)
[PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 35 billion yuan on the day]The PBOC conducted 35 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As no reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 35 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data APP)
US dollar:
As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 100.36.
Two US Fed officials said further rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation. US Fed's Goolsbee said: If inflation does not pull back, clear action to raise rates is needed. US Fed's Musalem said on Monday that due to strong demand and commodity price shocks extending beyond the oil sector, the US Fed may need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation. He also stressed that the US Fed would be better off acting sooner rather than waiting. Musalem said: "Persistent demand and recurring supply pressures are still adding to inflation risks. I think that without further policy measures to restrain inflation, inflation 18 months from now is likely to be significantly above our 2% target rather than at the target level. I believe policy must exert meaningful restraint on inflation. That way the US Fed can achieve its inflation target in about a year and a half, leaving time for tightening policy to affect the economy." He also said: "Earlier, gradual policy tightening is more appropriate and causes less shock to the economy than larger and potentially more abrupt policy moves later."Musalem noted that inflation "is not a risk, it is already here," and even after stripping out the effects of oil and other supply-related factors, underlying inflation could still run several percentage points above the US Fed's target and is "moving in the wrong direction." (Jin10 Data APP)
According to CME "US Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting is 43.5%, and the probability of a 25bp hike is 56.5%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% through December is 9.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 46.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp hike is 43.9%.
Other currencies:
RBNZ Governor Breman said persistently higher oil prices are expected to push near-term inflation slightly above the assumptions in the central bank's September monetary policy statement. Breman said the RBNZ will assess upcoming data and global developments before its October 28 decision, and reiterated that the committee remains focused on the inflation outlook. She said significant risks to the economic outlook remain, a statement consistent with the RBNZ's recent messaging that acknowledges both upside inflation risks related to energy costs and downside risks to economic activity from softer domestic demand. On growth, Breman said current data suggest the recovery is continuing this quarter, though it remains uneven across sectors. Overall, her remarks painted a picture of a central bank balancing two factors: near-term inflation strength driven by oil prices on one hand, and a recovery that is still underway but not yet broad-based on the other. This combination means the timing and scale of any further policy tightening depend on how these two factors evolve over the coming weeks. (Jin10 Data APP)
Data:
Today will see the release of US ADP employment change for the week ending September 5, US September Richmond Fed manufacturing index, eurozone September flash consumer confidence, UK August public sector net borrowing, UK September CBI industrial order balance, and other data.
In addition, Vice Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to the US from September 19-23 for economic and trade consultations with the US side. RBA Governor Bullock delivered a speech, ECB President Lagarde delivered pre-recorded remarks at a conference on central banks' response to future challenges, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams spoke at the 2026 US Treasury Market Conference, US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson spoke at the 2026 US Treasury Market Conference, and US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, UK Prime Minister Burnham, and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae in the US.
Crude oil:
As of 11:45, oil prices rose in both markets, with WTI up 0.81% and Brent up 1.03%. The market is focused on developments in the Middle East geopolitical conflict.
According to the UK's Financial Times, US President Donald Trump said he is very concerned about rising diesel prices and wants to ensure Russian diesel supplies can enter the global market to ease oil price increases. Trump continues to pressure Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries. (Jin10 Data APP)
Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement that on Monday, a group of armed men closed Valve No. 7 on the Sharara crude pipeline leading to the Zawiya port, causing a sharp drop in production at the Sharara oilfield. (Jin10 Data APP)
G7 statement: The situation in Yemen poses an unacceptable threat to regional stability and security and to global energy security; strongly condemns the Houthis' continued unacceptable attacks in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia. Calls on the Houthis to immediately cease all military operations, threats, and attacks targeting civilian shipping. (Jin10 Data APP)
In addition, according to data from TankerTrackers.com, Saudi Aramco loaded 14 million barrels of crude oil onto seven VLCCs from Gulf terminals on Sunday to step up exports via the Strait of Hormuz. Satellite imagery showed seven tankers near the Ras Tanura port on Sunday. (Jin10 Data APP)
Spot market overview:
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