Wafer Decline Narrows, Solar Cells Remain Weak, Film Stable Amid Wait-and-See [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, Sept 1:

Wafer

Prices: Market 18X wafer prices were 1.105-1.127 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.108-1.146 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.187-1.245 yuan/piece. Wafer transaction prices edged down, but the decline narrowed noticeably. With raw material prices relatively firm, the lower end of the wafer price range was relatively clear.

Production: According to SMM’s latest survey feedback, September production was set to increase by 1-2 GW MoM. Although production had been cut for two consecutive months from July to August, overall production remained relatively high versus demand. In addition, demand for 183 started to weaken at the margin in this round.

Inventory: Inventory buildup among wafer enterprises showed a diverging trend. Inventory at top-tier players has exceeded the reasonable range. India began stockpiling in succession, and demand for P-type 18X orders surged. In addition, re-export demand also increased, with multiple African countries ranking among the top exporters.

Solar cell

Prices: Today’s solar cell market continued its downward trend, with overall market sentiment subdued. The quotation center for 210R continued to move lower, with the price range narrowing to 0.317-0.327 Yuan/W; the quotation range for 183 was also revised down to 0.32-0.33 Yuan/W; 210N saw the largest weakening, with the price range revised down to 0.304-0.313 Yuan/W. Actual market transactions were still dominated by scattered small-lot deals. Traders slowed their purchase pace, module plants’ order shipments were relatively slow, and downstream procurement showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. In the short term, prices may continue to consolidate on a subdued note.

Production: September production was expected to edge down from August, with clear divergence in manufacturers’ production schedules. For specialized solar cell plants, some manufacturers’ newly retrofitted lines were gradually put into use, while some had actions to ramp up production; for integrated plants, under the dual impact of temporary plant power outages and weak end-use demand, production cuts were larger than the production ramp-up at specialized plants. As a result, the overall September production schedule edged down.

Inventory: This week, solar cell inventory showed signs of buildup. Traders’ purchase pace slowed markedly, and module plants in China made very limited procurement volumes due to earlier high prices. Solar cell exporters basically did not ship, correspondingly weakening fundamental support for the futures.

PV film

Price

PV-grade EVA:

Currently, the mainstream spot transaction range for PV-grade EVA resin in China was 10,100-10,350 yuan/mt, with resin prices temporarily stable. On the supply side, petrochemical producers’ September production schedules still focused mainly on PV-grade EVA, and PV-grade output was expected to stay high. On the demand side, PV film plants’ rigid procurement demand was stable, providing some floor support for resin prices. In the short term, PV-grade EVA prices were expected to remain stable. However, as PV-grade EVA supply continues to be released, if downstream foam applications still fail to see a strong demand recovery to drive production switching, PV-grade EVA may face oversupply pressure, and PV-grade EVA prices carry downside risks.

PV film:

Currently, the price of 420g transparent EVA film is 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and the price of 380g EPE film is 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². Film market prices have not changed. The new round of monthly film price negotiations has basically been settled. On the cost side, upstream EVA resin prices have remained stable recently, providing cost support for the film. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream modules in September is expected to change little, and procurement demand for film continues to be mild. Overall, this round of monthly film pricing is basically flat compared with August, and short-term film prices are expected to remain stable.

Production: This week, some petrochemical units switched to PV-grade materials, and PV-grade EVA production edged up slightly; film production schedules in September are expected to pull back slightly from August.

Inventory: Petrochemical plant inventories are currently running at low levels; film manufacturers' inventories are running within a reasonable and controllable range.