[SMM Analysis]Import of Ghana Manganese Ore Under Dual Squeeze: Resonance of Price Signals and Policy Uncertainties

Global manganese ore resources are highly concentrated, with differentiated supply patterns between oxidized manganese ore and carbonate manganese ore. Unlike major producing countries such as Australia, Gabon, and Brazil, which primarily export oxidized ore, Ghana is the only country in the world that has achieved large-scale mining and stable export of high-grade carbonate manganese ore. Its carbonate ore is almost entirely sourced from the Nsuta mining area in Tarkwa, southwestern Ghana—currently the world's only large-scale supply base for high-grade carbonate manganese ore.

In terms of ore quality, Ghanaian carbonate manganese ore offers significant advantages: grades are stable at 28%–30%, iron content is below 2%, and alumina and heavy metal impurity levels are extremely low. These high-grade, low-impurity characteristics substantially reduce the refining steps and auxiliary input requirements in downstream smelting processes.

According to General Administration of Customs statistics, China's carbonate manganese ore imports from Ghana increased from 3.15 million tonnes in 2023 to 5.32 million tonnes in 2025—a rise of nearly 70%. For the full year 2025, China imported 5.3214 million tonnes of manganese ore from Ghana, up 14.50% year-on-year, accounting for 16.22% of China's total manganese ore imports. Ghana firmly ranks as China's third-largest source of manganese ore imports.

However, on 13 February 2026, Ghanaian President Mahama announced in Addis Ababa that by 2030 Ghana will implement a comprehensive ban on the export of unprocessed minerals—including manganese ore, bauxite, and iron ore. The core objective of this policy is to support domestic processing industries, driving employment and economic growth by extending the industrial chain.

If this ban takes effect as scheduled, its impact will cascade along the industrial chain: first, global seaborne manganese ore trade volumes are expected to shrink by more than half, tightening international market supply; second, China's long-standing "import raw ore—domestic smelting" model will face significant challenges. Relevant enterprises must adjust their raw material procurement strategies—either shifting to imported processed products such as manganese alloy, or seeking to establish processing capacity within Ghana to circumvent policy restrictions. For China's manganese industry chain, how to complete the transition from "buying ore" to "buying products" and even "localized production" within the available window has become an urgent challenge facing the sector.

Since October 2025, Ghanaian manganese ore imports have been on a sustained decline—a trend driven by the combined resonance of price signals and policy expectations.

On one hand, weakening domestic spot prices directly triggered the contraction in imports. Monthly Ghana ore import volumes are highly correlated with domestic manganese ore spot prices. Starting in October 2025, as domestic spot prices entered a broad downward channel, import volumes contracted in tandem; conversely, the marginal rebound in March 2026 aligned with a sharp price rally that same month. The underlying procurement logic is that Ghana ore imports are heavily concentrated in Tianyuan Manganese Industry, whose decisions are driven by assessments of prevailing and near-term market conditions. Its procurement behavior largely follows a "market-tracking" pattern—rising and falling in step with spot prices.

On the other hand, tightening Ghanaian export policy has further amplified the magnitude of the import decline. Although the 13 February 2026 announcement allows a transitional window until 2030 and near-term import decisions remain fundamentally profit-driven, the policy itself has already materially altered market expectations. Driven by this policy outlook, export costs for Ghana Manganese Company (GMC) have gradually increased and are being progressively reflected in FOB quotations. Since the start of 2026, with the exception of a brief price uptick in March, domestic manganese ore prices have trended lower overall. Squeezed between rising costs on the supply side and falling selling prices on the demand side, importers have seen their profit margins sharply compressed, making proactive procurement cuts the rational choice.

In short, falling prices have determined the direction of import contraction, while policy expectations have raised the cost floor and accelerated the pace of volume reduction—the combination of both factors has jointly shaped the declining import trend since October 2025.