Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Strengthen Amid Rising Costs and Inventory Buildup; Consolidation Expected

Published: Aug 28, 2026 15:51
This week, hot-rolled coil prices strengthened sharply from the previous week, with overall transactions improving. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on rolling lines increased WoW, and overall hot-rolled coil production declined. Demand side, apparent demand fell WoW. Inventory side, total hot-rolled coil inventory rose 127,100 mt WoW, while mill inventory fell 5,500 mt WoW. Social inventory side, hot-rolled coil social inventory at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) tracked by SMM was 4.6308 million mt, up 132,700 mt WoW (up 2.95% WoW) and up 29.86% YoY on a calendar-year basis. By region, apart from destocking in the South China market, all other regions saw inventory buildup, with the buildup magnitude widening notably. Cost side, coking coal and coke surged higher this week, and the second round of coke price increases was implemented, significantly strengthening cost support for hot-rolled coil. Looking ahead, coke initiated a third round of price increases, and the market expects a fourth round to follow; coupled with blast furnace resumptions, hot metal production is expected to rebound, and iron ore demand will support prices, with strong cost-side support. From a fundamentals perspective, hot-rolling lines are expected to gradually resume production, with production expected to rebound, but demand is expected to recover relatively slowly; inventories are expected to continue building up, and fundamental pressure remains. Hot-rolled coil prices are expected to move in line with the cost side next week, with the most-traded contract expected to trade in the 3,340-3,430 range.

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