LME and SHFE Copper Both Closed Higher as Bulls Increased Positions, Spot Premiums Rose Rapidly [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, 8.28.2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,191/mt, edged down to $14,181/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to a high of $14,310/mt, and finally closed at $14,306/mt, up 0.52%. Trading volume rose to 16,000 lots, and open interest rose to 270,000 lots, up 4,294 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 108,240 yuan/mt, touched a low of 108,120 yuan/mt intraday, then drifted higher to a high of 108,640 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 108,590 yuan/mt, up 0.27%. Trading volume rose to 28,000 lots, and open interest rose to 213,000 lots, up 308 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On August 26 (Wednesday), the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation announced $10 million in funding for seven projects. The funding will be used to accelerate early-stage technology R&D to more efficiently recover and purify critical materials needed for energy technologies. Led by the Critical Materials Innovation (CMI) Hub, the projects focus on rare earth elements, gallium, copper, and other critical materials. Three of the projects focus on extracting gallium from existing industrial processes—including bauxite and alumina processing, zinc refining residues, and industrial by-product residues—with the aim of expanding supply without developing new mines. Selected projects include: Case Western Reserve University: technology enhancement based on a chloride molten-salt electrolysis process for efficient production of heavy rare earth metals; Colorado School of Mines: R&D on SX-EW and bio-hydrometallurgy processes to improve extraction efficiency of primary sulfide copper ore; University of Arizona: strengthening sulfide copper leaching using a nano-bubble–surfactant–reactive oxygen synergistic system; FAST Metals: extracting gallium and mixed rare-earth oxides from industrial by-product residue streams to open up new domestic sources; Indium Corporation: R&D on improved ion-exchange resin technology to extract gallium from the bauxite–alumina processing flow; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign: developing redox adsorbents for electrochemical selective recovery of gallium from mine by-products and retired scrap; Oak Ridge National Laboratory: using solid-phase extraction technology to selectively separate and recover gallium from zinc smelting slag.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On August 27, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at 380–520 yuan/mt, with the average at 450 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. After the SHFE copper 2609 contract opened with an overall gap-up, it moved in a pattern of drifting higher. After the morning open, prices quickly rallied from around 108,600 yuan/mt to above 108,800 yuan/mt; although there were repeated pullbacks afterward, the center continued to move higher, with prices approaching 109,000 yuan/mt multiple times intraday. Near midday, SHFE copper continued to consolidate at highs and finally closed around 108,970 yuan/mt. The Back price spread between futures contracts ranged from 310 to 350 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for the SHFE copper 2609 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 2,160 yuan/mt to a loss of 2,110 yuan/mt. Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.1, up 0.13 MoM, while purchase willingness was 3.34, down 0.1 MoM; historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, available copper cathode cargo in the Shanghai market tightened further. After low-priced cargo was traded, market offers fell quickly; suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, pushing spot premiums rapidly toward the year-to-date high. Meanwhile, the spot copper price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened to about 235 yuan/mt. If the spread subsequently covers transportation, capital occupancy, and time costs, some Guangdong cargo may meet the conditions for transfer to Shanghai, providing marginal relief to expectations of tight supply in Shanghai. However, cross-regional cargo still requires time from organizing shipment to actual warehousing, so its short-term replenishment effect on spot supply may be relatively limited. Demand side, copper prices stayed at a relatively high level, and with spot premiums rising rapidly, downstream acceptance of high-priced cargo declined; intraday purchase sentiment pulled back slightly, and the willingness to chase higher prices may gradually weaken. Overall, supported by tight available cargo and suppliers holding prices firm, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the 2609 contract are expected to remain at high levels today. However, as the Shanghai–Guangdong cross-regional transfer window nears opening and high copper prices and high premiums curb demand, the room for further upside in premiums may narrow.
(2) Guangdong: On August 27, spot prices of East China #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 109,080 yuan/mt, down 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,975 yuan/mt, down 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Guangdong, the procurement sentiment index for copper cathode was 2.78, down 0.07 from the previous trading day, and the shipments sentiment index was 2.89, down 0.02 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, inventories fell for eight consecutive periods and suppliers actively held prices firm, but downstream restocking was not active.
(3) Imported copper: On August 27, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $85/mt (price range $80-90/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $80/mt (price range $75-85/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $38/mt (price range $30-46/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from month-end August to mid-September.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on August 27, the futures closing price was 108,970 yuan/mt, down 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 450 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices fell 100 yuan/mt WoW; the sales sentiment index for copper scrap declined to 2.82, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.75. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,844 yuan/mt, down 217 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,750 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices edged down, and transactions in the copper scrap market were almost unchanged from yesterday. As the peak season approached, order-taking by secondary copper rod enterprises was average, and high copper prices may affect peak-season consumption demand.
Prices: On the macro front, the market was waiting for Fed Chairman Walsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, and the US dollar index consolidated above the 99 level. Geopolitically, the US-Iran agreement saw renewed uncertainties, and the Trump administration refused to return to the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June. As a result, copper prices stabilized and rebounded. Fundamentals: On the supply side, port congestion had yet to ease, and the pace of arrivals and inbound stocking of imported copper remained constrained, with limited spot replenishment; on the demand side, high copper prices suppressed downstream consumption, and the market remained dominated by just-in-time procurement. As of Thursday, August 27, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 24,900 mt WoW from last Thursday to 109,500 mt; total inventories decreased by 17,600 mt from 127,100 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate and edge up today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]