PV aluminum frame operations continue to consolidate on a strong note, aluminum price macro sentiment weakens, and inventory forward oversupply pressure persists [SMM Analysis]

SMM, August 27:

PV aluminum extrusion: In this week's survey sample, the operating rate of PV frame enterprises consolidated on a strong note. Affected by the expected implementation of the US Section 232 PV new regulation, policy-driven advance stockpiling demand was mainly concentrated in the upstream solar cell sector. Order-taking and production schedules at the end-user module export side remained relatively cautious, with no large-scale concentrated market trend emerging. As a result, growth in supporting orders for PV frames was limited, only marginally improving the industry's operating rates and failing to create a trend rebound momentum. Looking ahead in the short term, production schedules of downstream PV module enterprises are relatively stable, and with the gradual absorption of the overseas policy buffer window, end-use demand shows no significant growth. In the short term, the operating rate of PV frame enterprises is expected to continue its consolidating-on-a-strong-note trend.

Raw material prices: During the period from 2026.8.24 to 2026.8.27, the SMM A00 weekly average price was 23,832.5 yuan/mt, up 0.1% from the previous week's average. Overall, macro front, the pressure on aluminum prices has increased somewhat. The Jackson Hole annual conference and Warsh's debut brought policy uncertainties. The strengthening US dollar index combined with rising expectations of interest rate hikes, while the easing of US-Iran geopolitical risk premiums and the pullback in oil prices jointly created overhead resistance for aluminum prices. However, China's inventory continued destocking and the approaching "September peak season" expectations provided strong support to aluminum prices. Backed by these bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs next week. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in the range of 23,400-24,100 yuan/mt, while LME aluminum is expected to trade in the range of $3,150-3,280/mt.