[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (August 21 - August 27), platinum and palladium prices retreated after rapid rises and swung wildly at highs, with platinum closing slightly higher on the weekly chart and palladium edging lower.
At the start of the week (August 21), news emerged from Pakistan that the US and Iran had reached a framework consensus on a ceasefire, with freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz included in the agreement. Combined with overall strength in precious metals and the continued narrative of a weakening US dollar, platinum and palladium opened significantly higher with a gap and rallied strongly.
Bullish sentiment persisted on Monday, with both metals refreshing their rebound highs since early July. Mid-week, profit-taking by bulls emerged after consecutive gains, and futures pulled back from highs.
Towards the week's end, the US July PCE price index rose 3.7% YoY, slightly above the market expectations of 3.6%, while core PCE came in at 3.3% YoY, in line with estimates. After the data release, the probability of a September rate hike by the Fed rose from around 36% to 40%-42%, the US dollar index briefly surged to near the 99 mark, and with markets cautiously awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium debut, platinum and palladium extended their pullback.
The most-traded GFEX platinum contract hit a weekly high of 470.6 yuan/g and a low of 449.45 yuan/g, closing at 450.8 yuan/g on August 27, up about 1.61% WoW from last week's close of 443.65 yuan/g. The most-traded palladium contract reached a weekly high of 326.8 yuan/g and a low of 312.3 yuan/g, closing at 314.45 yuan/g on August 27, down about 0.38% WoW from last week's close of 315.65 yuan/g.
In the spot market, spot discounts moved in a narrow range this week. Mainstream platinum quotations were at discounts of 4-2.5 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, and palladium quotations were at discounts of 3.5-2 yuan/g against the PD2610 contract. As futures surged during the week, some unhedged deep-discount cargoes emerged, and some long-term contract suppliers holding inventory chose to sell at concessions due to month-end August delivery pressure, while warrant holders' quotes remained firm. Downstream auto catalyst and industrial consumption remained weak, with end-users mainly purchasing based on orders. Some enterprises had ample stockpiles, leaving the sluggish overall spot market unchanged.
Looking ahead, platinum and palladium prices are in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts at high rebound levels, with near-term direction heavily anchored to Friday's Jackson Hole speech and September Fed policy expectations. On the bullish side, COMEX platinum registered inventory fell to 193,000 ounces, an extremely low level at the 10th percentile historically, indicating a thin supply-side buffer. If the US-Iran ceasefire framework makes substantive progress and Hormuz navigation gradually resumes, lower oil prices and inflation expectations would continue to weaken the rate-hike narrative, supporting precious metals valuation repair. But upside constraints are also clear: first, the July PCE overall inflation beat expectations, showing price pressures remain resilient, and the probability of a September rate hike rose back above 40%, leaving rate-side pressure intact; second, the current rebound is still mainly driven by macro sentiment and fund flows, with supply-demand fundamentals not yet reversed, and COMEX total palladium inventory remains near a one-year high; third, the US-Iran agreement is only a framework consensus, and temporary navigation arrangements do not mean a full reopening, with geopolitical risks still present. Key focus areas include the guidance on the rate path from the August 28 speech, September US inflation and employment data, and actual progress on Hormuz navigation.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
COMEX platinum and palladium inventories diverged this week. Platinum inventory continued its previous destocking trend, with registered inventory at about 193,000 ounces as of August 24, down about 2.7% over the past 30 days, at an extremely low 10th percentile level historically. The deliverable buffer is thin, and the supply-side tightness persisted. Total platinum inventory edged down slightly from the previous week to around 390,000 ounces, with the registered ratio holding at about 48%-49%. The key reason is that industrial buying turned cautious after platinum prices rebounded to highs, but continuous ETF and investment demand inflows partially offset the slowdown in industrial demand, leaving the destocking trend intact. Palladium inventory remained high and consolidated, with registered inventory at about 198,000 ounces as of August 24, down 1.8% over the past 30 days, and total inventory at about 250,500 ounces, with a registered ratio near 79.1%. US warehouse buffer stocks remain near a one-year high, indicating an ample supply pattern.
On the import side, customs data showed that July 2026 imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were about 8.35 mt, down 21.74% MoM but up 23.52% YoY; imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were about 2.99 mt, down 37.05% MoM and down 2.61% YoY. Although platinum imports fell MoM, they maintained YoY growth, with cumulative January-July imports at about 56.53 mt, up about 16.5% YoY, and the import run-rate notably higher than the same period in 2023-2025. Palladium imports turned negative YoY in July, the first single-month YoY decline since 2026, reflecting cooling restocking willingness among importers amid weak domestic auto catalyst and industrial demand. Cumulative January-July imports were about 29.96 mt, still up about 85% YoY. Overall, domestic platinum and palladium supply remains ample, and given export restriction policies, the domestic surplus is difficult to absorb through exports.
On lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates stayed low. The one-month platinum lease rate was below 2%, and the one-month palladium lease rate hovered around 1%, indicating ample spot market liquidity and weak lending demand, with the overall loose supply pattern unchanged.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid prices fluctuated narrowly in the 185-188 yuan/g range, continuing to consolidate at highs. Early in the week, it edged lower before quickly rebounding to 188 yuan/g, then pulled back over the following two days. As of Thursday, it was quoted at 186.5 yuan/g, down 0.27% from last Friday's 187 yuan/g. Looking at August overall, chloroplatinic acid prices have been rising from 166.5 yuan/g at the start of the month and remain in a high range for the month. Palladium chloride drifted lower this week, gradually falling from 201 yuan/g on Monday to 200 yuan/g on Thursday, down about 1.48% from last Friday's 203 yuan/g. In August, palladium chloride has been trading in the 188.5-207.5 yuan/g range and currently sits at the lower-middle area of the monthly band.
This week, both chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride consolidated on a subdued note at highs. Chloroplatinic acid moved sideways in the 185-188 yuan/g range, showing relatively stronger downside resilience, while palladium chloride gradually retreated to the key 200 yuan/g level. The overall spot market for platinum group compounds remained sluggish, with downstream procurement mainly need-based, strong wait-and-see sentiment, and a lack of clear directional drivers in the short term.
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