Inventory Falls for 8 Consecutive Days, Suppliers Actively Hold Prices Firm, but Downstream Restocking Is Weak [SMM South China Spot Copper]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the available copper cathode supply in the Shanghai market is tightening further, with market offers quickly decreasing after low-priced cargoes are traded. Suppliers show a strong willingness to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, driving spot premiums to rapidly approach the year's high. Meanwhile, the spot price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened to around 235 yuan/mt. If the spread can cover transportation, capital occupancy, and time costs, some Guangdong cargoes may be able to be moved to Shanghai, marginally easing expectations of tight supply in Shanghai. However, it still takes some time for cross-regional cargoes from organization and shipment to actual warehouse entry, so the supplement to spot supply may be relatively limited in the short term. Demand side, copper prices remain at a relatively high level, and coupled with the rapid rise in spot premiums, downstream acceptance of high-priced cargoes has declined, with daily purchasing sentiment pulling back slightly, and the willingness to chase higher prices is likely to weaken gradually. Overall, supported by tight available supply and suppliers holding prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at high premiums tomorrow. However, as the window for cross-regional transfers between Shanghai and Guangdong approaches opening, and high copper prices and high premiums suppress demand, the extent of further rise in premiums may narrow.

Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at a premium of 100–240 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, with an average premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and an average transaction price of 109,090 yuan/mt, down 245 yuan/mt from the previous trading day;

According to Peru’s National Society of Mining, Petroleum and Energy (SNMPE), the country’s mining exports reached $42.221 billion in the first half of 2026, up 56% year on year. Copper exports rose 53.3% to $19.455 billion, accounting for approximately 46.1% of total mining exports. In June alone, copper exports increased 18% year on year to $2.626 billion, despite a 16.9% decline in export volume, indicating that higher prices more than offset the drop in shipments. The decline in export volume was partly attributable to lower mine output. Data from Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM) showed that copper production fell 4.7% year on year to 218,200 tonnes in June, with output at Antapaccay and Marcobre declining by 25.9% and 16.7%, respectively. However, the decline in copper production was significantly smaller than the contraction in export volume, suggesting that lower mine output alone cannot fully explain the decrease. Monthly concentrate shipment schedules and customs reporting cut-off dates may also have amplified the decline. Peru’s copper production still increased 1.9% year on year in the first half of 2026, while physical exports of copper ores and concentrates rose 3.88% during January–May. The June decline therefore appears to be a monthly fluctuation rather than evidence of a structural contraction in Peru’s copper supply. The market should continue to monitor production recovery at major mines and copper concentrate exports in the third quarter.